沈阳大气污染物与气象因素对呼吸疾病门诊数的影响  

Effects of air pollutants and meteorological factors on outpatient visitors for respiratory diseases in Shenyang

作　　者：洪也[1] 张莹[2] 马雁军[1] 王式功[2] 张军[3] 侯率[3] 陈凯奇 李慧 HONG Ye;ZHANG Ying;MA Yan-jun;WANG Shi-gong;ZHANG Jun;HOU Shuai;CHEN Kai-Qi;LI Hui(Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110016,China;Collage of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610025,China;The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University,Shenyang 110005,China;College of Global Change and Earth System Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;The Third the People’s Hospital of Bengbu,Benbu 233000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610025 [3]中国医科大学附属第四医院,辽宁沈阳110005 [4]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875 [5]蚌埠市第三人民医院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2020年第9期4077-4090,共14页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0212301);辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题(202012,201502);中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX 20160307)。

摘　　要：利用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型,分析沈阳市2015年12月~2016年12月整个观测期间和污染期间大气污染物与气象因素及其交互作用对呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人数的影响.结果表明:无论是全人群、不同性别、还是不同年龄人群中,HONO对门诊人数的影响均非常显著.最佳滞后时间下,PM10、PM2.5、SO2、NO2、HONO和NH3的浓度每增加10μg/m^3或1个IQR,对应的呼吸系统疾病日门诊人数增加百分比(ER)分别为1.29%(1.18%~1.4%),1.31%(1.2%~1.43%),3.28%(3.07%~3.50%),5.26%(4.91%~5.61%),12.89%(4.45%~22.01%)和11.09%(9.84%~12.36%).HONO、NH3和PM2.5对女性的影响远比对男性的影响大,污染日当日对门诊量的影响最大;PM2.5对≥65岁的老人影响大;NH3、HONO和SO2对15~65岁人群影响大.污染天气条件下HONO和NO2对门诊人数影响最高,均为污染日当日对门诊量的影响最大.沙尘天气Ca2+等土壤性离子影响最大.多污染物模型中,不同污染物对呼吸疾病的影响具有协同作用或拮抗作用.气温对各呼吸疾病的影响最强,低温和高污染物浓度对呼吸系统疾病门诊人数的影响有交互作用.Using as emi-parametric generalized additive model,we analyzed the effects of air pollutants and meteorological factors as well as their interactions on outpatient visitors for respiratory diseases in Shenyang during the whole observation period and air pollution episodes from December 2015 to December 2016.The results indicated that HONO greatly influenced outpatient visitors for respiratory diseases among general population,not depending on genders and ages.With the optimal lag period,when concentrations of PM10,PM2.5,SO2,NO2,HONO and NH3 increased by per 10μg/m^3 or 1 inter quartile range(IQR),the totle ER(excess risk)of daily outpatient visitors for respiratory diseases increased by 1.29%(1.18%~1.4%),1.31%(1.2%~1.43%),3.28%(3.07%~3.50%),5.26%(4.91%~5.61%),12.89%(4.45%~22.01%),and 11.09%(9.84%~12.36%).respectively.HONO,NH3 and PM2.5 had a longer and greater effect for woman outpatient visitors than men.PM2.5 particularly influenced outpatient visits for respiratory diseases among people elder than 65.NH3,HONO,and SO2 influenced outpatient visits among people between 15~65 years old.HONO and NO2 affected outpatient visits most significantly on air pollution days,while on dust days,soil irons such as Ca2+played the most important role.Different air pollutants had a synergistic or antagonism effect on respiratory diseases.Air temperature had the greatest effect on respiratory diseases,and the interaction between low temperature and high pollutant concentration had the greatest effect on outpatient visits.

关 键 词：大气污染 呼吸系统疾病 半参数广义相加模型(GAM) 交互作用 

分 类 号：X503.1[环境科学与工程—环境工程]