基于GPC的环肋耐压圆柱壳结构失稳概率分析  

Instability Probability Analysis of Ring Stiffened Pressure Cylindrical Shell Structures Based on GPC

作　　者：张毅博[1] 孙志礼[1] 赵中强 赵经武 ZHANG Yi-bo;SUN Zhi-li;ZHAO Zhong-qiang;ZHAO Jing-wu(School of Mechanical Engineering&Automation,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China;CRRC Tangshan Co.,Ltd.,Tangshan 063000,China;Unit 93107 of the Chinese People′s Liberation Army,Shenyang 110141,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学机械工程与自动化学院,辽宁沈阳110819 [2]中车唐山机车车辆有限公司,河北唐山063000 [3]中国人民解放军第93107部队,辽宁沈阳110141

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第9期1268-1273,共6页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51775097)。

摘　　要：为评估具有小失效概率特性的深潜环肋耐压圆柱壳结构的失稳概率,提出了一种新的基于高斯过程分类和重要抽样的自适应分析方法.该方法通过引入马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法和欧式距离,开发了一种新的考虑预测不确定性和取样均匀性的自适应试验设计策略,以便更高效地构造高斯过程分类器;采用核密度估计构造准最优重要抽样密度函数;基于失效概率估计的稳定性,提出了一种更精确的迭代停止准则.通过某一分段函数验证了所提分析方法的准确性及高效性.应用所提方法得到某深潜环肋耐压圆柱壳结构的失稳概率约为8.242×10^-5.To evaluate the instability probability of deep submergence ring stiffened pressure cylindrical shell structures with small failure probability,an innovative adaptive analysis method based on Gaussian process classification(GPC)and importance sampling(IS)was proposed.By introducing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)and the Euclidean distance,a new adaptive strategy for design of experiments(DoE),considering the prediction uncertainty and the sampling uniformity,was developed to establish the Gaussian process classifier more efficiently.Furthermore,the quasi-optimal importance sampling density function was constructed by adopting the kernel density estimation(KDE).Based on the stability of failure probability estimation,a more accurate stopping criterion was also proposed.A piecewise function was utilized to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed analysis method.The instability probability of a deep submergence ring stiffened pressure cylindrical shell structure obtained by the proposed method is about 8.242×10^-5.

关 键 词：失稳概率 环肋耐压圆柱壳 高斯过程分类 小失效概率 自适应试验设计 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]