基于农田管理分区的制种玉米产量估算与限制因子评价  

Evaluation of limiting factors and prediction of seed maize yield based on management zones

作　　者：陈世超 杜太生[1,2] 王素芬 韩万海[2] 董平国 佟玲 胡铁民 Chen Shichao;Du Taisheng;Wang Sufen;Han Wanhai;Dong Pingguo;Tong Ling;Hu Tiemin(Center for Agricultural Water Research in China,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Wuwei Experimental Station for Efficient Water Use in Agriculture,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Wuwei 733000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学中国农业水问题研究中心,北京100083 [2]农业农村部作物高效用水武威科学观测实验站,武威733000

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2020年第15期128-133,共6页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51725904、51861125103);农业部公益性行业科研专项(201503125)。

摘　　要：为了提升规模化农田不同管理分区的玉米产量,实现精准管理,该研究使用相关成分回归法(Correlated Component Regression,CCR),考虑地形因素(高程)、土壤理化性质(砂粒、粉粒、黏粒、容重、土壤含水率、土壤有机碳、全氮、全磷、速效氮、电导率)11个因子,评估规模化农田和聚类分析得到的3个管理区(M1、M2和M3)内产量的限制因子,并在不同分区内建立产量估算模型。模型验证结果表明:未分区的情况下,产量限制因子为土壤粉粒、砂粒、土壤有机碳、土壤含水率、速效氮和全氮,经验证,产量估算模型的决定系数(R^2)为0.70,标准均方根误差(Normalized Root Mean Square Error,nRMSE)为0.21。分区后,M1的产量限制因子为土壤粉粒、砂粒、黏粒、速效氮、电导率、全氮和全磷,M2的产量限制因子为土壤粉粒、砂粒和土壤含水率,M3的产量限制因子为高程、土壤砂粒、黏粒和电导率,产量估算模型的精度高(经验证,0.71<R2<0.83,0.16<nRMSE<0.18)。对农田进行分区管理,并根据各管理区内作物产量的限制因素制定分布式管理策略,可以更具针对性地提升作物产量。In order to improve the maize yield in different management zones and achieve precision agricultural management within a large-scale field,Correlated Component Regression(CCR)was used to screen limiting factors of maize yield from topographical attributes(elevation),soil physical factors(sand,silt,clay,bulk density),and initial soil properties(soil organic carbon,total nitrogen,total phosphorus,soil water content,available nitrogen,electrical conductivity).Yield estimation model was established based on yield-limiting factors in each management zone and the whole field.Management zones were delineated by using the Fuzzy c-means Clustering Algorithm(FCM)based on the spatial variation of soil properties.For soil properties,statistically significant differences in most cases were found among different management zones(M1,M2,M3),excepted elevation,silt,and clay.The decrease in the Coefficient of Variation(CV)of soil properties in the management zones indicated that the distribution of soil properties was more homogeneous than in the whole field.Spatial distribution of yield and management zones were similar,while the yield was significantly different in the three management zones(M1>M2>M3).The inhomogeneous spatial distribution of soil properties showed that the limiting factors of yield could be varied among management zones.Therefore,this study was to find out the yield-limiting factors,establish yield estimation models based on yield-limiting factors,and find ways to improve the yield in each management zone within a field.Four correlated components(CC1-CC4)were obtained in management zones and the whole field by CCR.The factors with largely standardized loadings(absolute value of standard loadings was greater than 0.2)on major correlated components(values of standardized weights were greater than 0.7)were identified as the main limiting factors of maize yield in zones.Yield in three management zones was measured and the limiting factors of yield in different zones were evaluated.The results showed that limiting f

关 键 词：农田 分区 玉米 限制因子 产量估算模型 精准农业 相关成分回归 

分 类 号：S278[农业科学—农业水土工程]