邻避风险演化机理的系统仿真模拟研究  

Research on the Simulation of the Evolution Mechanism of NIMBY Risk

作　　者：衡霞[1] 陈鑫瑶 Heng Xia;Chen Xinyao

机构地区：[1]四川大学公共管理学院,成都610065

出　　处：《上海行政学院学报》2020年第5期71-79,共9页The Journal of Shanghai Administration Institute

基　　金：国家社科基金“国家治理现代化场域中的社会治理问题”(17VZL007);国家社科基金项目“农村社区治理能力现代化的双重困境及破解机制研究”(19BZZ069)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：邻避风险作为社会风险,具有发生频率较高、影响较广、参与人数较多等特点,公众的抗议越来越频繁地升级为群体性事件。因此,本文以发生过的邻避事件为二手资料,进行确定性背景和不确定性逻辑下邻避风险演化机理的仿真模拟,通过对Multi-Agent系统的公众行为策略和实验条件假定,还原了邻避事件从“风险-危机-失衡”前三个阶段的演化机理与演化逻辑,为地方政府在国家现代化场域中的有效治理提供了阶段性测量与预防的理论依据。NIMBY(Not in My Back Yard)risk,as a social risk,is characterized by high frequency of occurrence,wide impact,and large number of participants.Public protests are escalating more frequently into mass incidents.Therefore,this paper uses the occurred NIMBY events as the second-hand data to carry out the simulation of the evolution mechanism of NIMBY risk under the deterministic background and uncertainty logic.The public behavior strategy and experimental conditions of the Multi-Agent system are assumed to restore the evolutionary mechanism and evolutionary logic of NIMBY events through"risk-crisis-conflict",which provides a theoretical basis for the phased measurement and prevention of local governments in the effective governance of the national modernization field.

关 键 词：邻避风险 演化机理 系统仿真模拟 

分 类 号：C916[经济管理]