城乡居民基本养老保险个人账户收支平衡研究——基于预期寿命延长视角  

Research on the Balance of Individual Accounts of Urban and Rural Residents Basic Endowment Insurance:Based on Life Expectancy Extension Perspective

作　　者：李悦心 郭秀云[1] LI Yue-xin;GUO Xiu-yun(School of Political Science and Public Management,East China University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]华东政法大学政治学与公共管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《安徽行政学院学报》2020年第4期71-77,共7页Journal of Anhui Academy of Governance

基　　金：上海社科规划项目“‘双降’背景下上海城镇职工养老保险基金的潜在缺口及财政风险研究”(2019BGL006)。

摘　　要：我国已经进入老龄化社会,人口红利逐渐转化为人口负债。城乡居民基本养老保险个人账户由于其计发系数的固定性以及人的预期寿命的延长使其个人账户面临收支失衡的风险。文章以国发〔2014〕8号文件为政策基础,基于个体层面,建立精算模型,对城乡居民基本养老保险个人账户收支平衡进行测算,测算发现城乡居保个人账户面临着资金缺口。通过对影响个人账户资金缺口的制度内因素进行敏感性分析发现:个人账户记账率、养老金领取年龄、计发系数与个人账户资金缺口呈负相关;缴费档次与缴费年限与个人账户资金缺口呈正相关。可采取的措施为扩大个人账户资金投资渠道、提高居民领取养老金的年龄、适当调整计发系数等。China has entered an aging society,and the demographic dividend has gradually been transformed into population debt. Urban and rural residents’ basic endowment insurance’s individual accounts are subject to risk of imbalance of income and expenditure due to the fixed nature of their calculation coefficient and the extension of people’s life expectancy.Based on document NO.8 issued by state as the policy basis,this paper establishes an actuarial model to measure the balance of payment of the individual account for urban and rural residents basic endowment insurance,and finds that the individual account is facing a funding gap. Through the sensitivity analysis of the institutional factors that affecting the individual account’s fund gap,the results show that the income from investment of fund,the age of pensioners,and the distribution coefficient are negatively related to the gap in the individual account;the payment grade and the number of years insured are positively related to the gap in the individual account. The measures that can be taken are expanding the investment channels for individual account funds,raising pensioners’ age,and appropriately adjusting the calculation and distribution coefficient.

关 键 词：城乡居民基本养老保险 预期寿命 社会保险精算 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济] F842.67[经济管理—国民经济]