连续运行参考站网的暴雨过程时空变化分析  

Temporal and spatial variation analysis of rainstorm process based on CORS network

作　　者：张振 李黎 田莹 周嘉陵[3] 李媛 顾嘉伟 ZHANG Zhen;LI Li;TIAN Ying;ZHOU Jialing;LI Yuan;GU Jiawei(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou,Jiangsu 215009,China;Shandong Meteorological Bureau,Jinan 250031,China;Jiangsu Research Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanjing 210009,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏苏州215009 [2]山东省气象局,济南250031 [3]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210009

出　　处：《测绘科学》2020年第8期19-25,共7页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金青年项目(2016JJ3061,2017JJ2149);国家自然科学基金项目(41304029);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20161603);江苏省高等学校大学生创新创业训练计划重点项目(201810332018Z);山东省气象局研究项目(2017SDQXM0101);江苏省“333工程”培养资金项目(BRA2015537);2020年本科高水平毕业设计(论文)立项培育项目(2020GB-01)。

摘　　要：为了分析2017年8月19日苏北的一次局部暴雨降水过程的水汽场时空变化分布特征,该文基于无线电探空资料建立适合本地的加权平均温度(Tm)模型,利用66个江苏连续运行参考站(CORS)反演得到的GNSS大气可降水量(PWV),并结合温度和气压等大气热动力条件着重分析了江苏新沂站和江苏睢宁站的情况。研究结果表明:PWV增量变化很大程度上决定了降水强度及持续时间,降水强度与达到峰值后PWV增量变化幅度成正相关,暴雨的持续时间与PWV持续上升的时间成正相关;综合考虑PWV及其增量变化后,温度和气压等大气热动力条件对暴雨预报有一定的指示作用;PWV峰值区与实际降水区基本吻合,PWV时空变化分析可对暴雨实际降水范围进行较为准确的预测。To analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the rainstorm water vapor field during August 19,2017 in northern Jiangsu province,this paper established the atmospheric weighted average temperature(T_m)model,derived the GNSS precipitable water vapor(PWV)from continuously operating reference system(66 stations)of Jiangsu province,also,combing with the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions(temperature and pressure).The results showed that the intensity and duration of precipitation were largely determined by PWV increment changes.The precipitation intensity was positively correlated with the dropping amplitude of PWV increment after PWV reaching its peak.The rainstorm duration was positively correlated with the duration of PWV uninterrupted growth.Second,the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions(temperature and pressure)had certain indicative effect on the rainstorm forecast combined with PWV and its increment.Third,the peak area of PWV was basically consistent with the actual precipitation area.The temporal and spatial change analysis of PWV could be used for predicting the actual precipitation area of rainstorm accurately.

关 键 词：CORS GNSS气象学 暴雨 可降水量 大气热动力 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]