技术进步能抑制中国二氧化碳排放吗?--基于面板分位数模型的实证研究  

Can Technological Progress Suppresses Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China?:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Quantile Model

作　　者：徐德义[1] 马瑞阳[1] 朱永光[1] Xu Deyi;Ma Ruiyang;Zhu Yongguang(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2020年第16期251-259,共9页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“矿源地球化学元素在黄土覆盖层中纵向长程研究”(41572315)。

摘　　要：以中国30个省、自治区、直辖市2001—2017年的面板数据为样本,根据CO2排放量的大小将30个省份划分成六大区域,利用面板分位数模型比较研究能源使用技术、CO2排放技术和广义技术创新等3种类型技术进步对各区域碳排放的影响。实证结果表明:能源使用技术进步抑制碳排放的效应要大于促进碳排放的能源回弹效应,净效应表现为抑制碳排放,并且净效应大小与区域碳排放水平呈"U"型结构,而CO2排放技术进步在3种技术进步中抑制碳排放的作用最明显,但是其减排效应只有在年均碳排放量大于0.25分位点的省份才会发挥作用,广义技术创新并没有表现出显著的碳减排作用;比较分析3种技术进步的碳减排效应时,能源使用技术进步与CO2排放技术进步在碳排放水平最高的3个省份(江苏、山东、河北)抑制CO2排放的作用最明显。Taking panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2001 to 2017 as a sample,this paper divides the 30 provinces into six regions according to the amount of carbon dioxide emissions,uses the panel quantile model to compare the impact on China’s regional carbon emissions of three kinds of technological advances,which are energy use technology,CO2 emission technology and generalized technological innovation.The empirical results show that,the effect of technological progress of energy use in inhibiting carbon emissions is greater than the rebound effect in promoting carbon emissions,the net effect is shown as the inhibition of carbon emissions,and the net effect shows a U-shaped structure with the level of regional carbon emissions;among the three kinds of technological progress,technological progress of CO2 emission plays the most obvious role in restraining carbon emissions,but its emission reduction effect will only work in provinces which the average annual carbon emissions are greater than 0.25 quantile,generalized technological advances have not shown significant carbon reduction effect,technological progress of energy use and technological progress of CO2 emission have the most obvious effect on inhibiting carbon dioxide emissions in Jiangsu,Shandong and Hebei.

关 键 词：技术进步 碳排放 面板分位数模型 区域差异 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.1