美国能源政策的转变与国际能源安全  

Shift of US Energy Policies and International Energy Security

作　　者：薛宇择 张明源 Xue Yuze;Zhang Mingyuan(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学投资经济系,北京102488

出　　处：《中外能源》2020年第8期9-15,共7页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)研究生科研创新支持计划项目“财政分权、固定资产投资与产业结构变迁”(项目编号:2020-KY-051)。

摘　　要：特朗普就任美国总统以来,美国政府致力于推动化石能源产业的发展,并以此促进美国的经济繁荣和就业增加。在鼓励化石能源发展的能源战略下,得益于页岩油气革命,美国在2019年已经实现了石油贸易顺差,其能源政策的重心也逐渐从"能源独立"转向"能源主导"。而特朗普的能源政策虽然对煤炭产业有所促进,但仍无法改变其日渐衰落的趋势。美国页岩油产量的迅猛增长将造成世界能源市场供应过剩,同时也将加速改变现有的国际能源格局和能源地缘政治,能源已然成为美国一项强有力的政策工具。无论2020年美国大选结果如何,都不会影响其"能源主导"发展战略的实施。特朗普的能源政策对我国的油气市场、能源产业和经济发展也会产生一定影响,面对挑战,我国应正视自身能源需求,弱化美国能源政策变迁带来的风险。中美两国就能源方面达成合作共识应该是可以预期的,而中美在能源领域的合作不应仅限于能源进出口,在能源技术、企业交流方面也应加大合作力度。Since Donald Trump took office as US President,the US government has been committed to promoting the development of the fossil energy industry as a way to promote the economic prosperity and job creation in the US.Under the energy strategy to encourage the development of fossil energy,thanks to the shale oil and gas revolution,the United States has achieved an oil trade surplus in 2019,and the focus of its energy policy has gradually shifted from energy independence to energy dominance.Trump′s energy policies have helped the coal industry,but could not reverse its decline.The rapid growth of US shale oil production will lead to the oversupply of energy in the world market,and also accelerate the transformation of the existing international energy pattern and energy geopolitics.Energy has become a powerful policy tool for the US.The outcome of the US presidential election in 2020 will not affect the implementation of the development strategy of energy dominance.Trump′s energy policies will also have a certain impact on China′s oil and gas market,energy industry and economic development.In the face of these challenges,China should be aware of its own energy demand and weaken the risks brought by the changes in US energy policies.It can be expect-ed that China and the US will reach consensus on cooperation in the field of energy.China-US cooperation in the field of energy should not be limited to energy import and export,the cooperation in energy technology and corporate communication should also be strengthened.

关 键 词：美国能源政策 能源主导 化石能源 页岩油气 能源格局 供应过剩 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]