金融供给侧结构性改革背景下的金融脱媒效应——基于利率和资产价格双渠道的分析  

Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Disintermediation under the Background of Financial Supply-side Structural Reform:Perspective of Interest Rate and Asset Price

作　　者：赵瑞娟[1,2] 秦建文[1] ZHAO Rui-juan;QIN Jian-wen

机构地区：[1]广西大学商学院 [2]广西师范大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2020年第9期35-43,共9页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：广西哲学社会科学项目“基于价值链视角的互联网金融风险传导机理及监管路径研究”(项目编号:17BJ002)。

摘　　要：金融脱媒是金融供给侧结构性改革的必然趋势。在理论机制分析的基础上,笔者构建了LT-TVP-VAR模型实证研究“金融脱媒—利率—宏观经济”和“金融脱媒—资产价格—宏观经济”双渠道的传导效应,分析在利率市场化进程中传导效率的变化。结果发现,金融脱媒导致了短期利率上升,促进了资产价格上升,中长期利率效应趋于收敛,金融脱媒对产出的影响在短期以利率渠道为主抑制产出增长,长期以资产价格渠道为主促进产出增长,对价格水平的影响以资产价格传导渠道为主,资本市场“货币蓄水池”功能抑制了通货膨胀。随着利率市场化水平的提升,金融脱媒通过双渠道向经济增长和通货膨胀的传导效率均有所提升。本文研究的政策含义是,为实现“高增长、低通胀”的理想状态,金融层面应持续推进供给侧结构性改革和利率市场化,促进多层次资本市场发展。Financial disintermediation is an inevitable trend of financial supply-side structural reform.On the basis of theoretical mechanism analysis,this paper employed LT-TVP-VAR model to empirically study the transmission effect of“financial disintermediation-interest rate-macro economy”and“financial disintermediation-asset price-macro economy”,and analyzes the change of transmission efficiency in the process of interest rate liberalization.Results show that the financial disintermediation leads to short-term interest rates rise,promots the rise in asset prices,interest rates tend to be convergent in medium and long term.Financial disintermediation can restrain output growth in the short term with the interest rate channel,and promote output growth in the long term with asset prices channel.Financial disintermediation's influence on the price level is given priority to asset price transmission channels,the capital market“pool”can restrain the inflation.With the improvement of interest rate liberalization,the transmission efficiency of financial disintermediation to economic growth and inflation through dual channels has been improved.The policy implication of this paper is that in order to achieve the ideal state of“high growth and low inflation”,the financial sector should continue to push forward the supply-side structural reform and interest rate liberalization,and promote the development of multi-layer capital market.

关 键 词：金融供给侧结构性改革 金融脱媒 利率 资产价格 社会融资规模 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]