市场不确定下的价格机制与产能过剩  

Price Mechanism and Overcapacity under Market Uncertainty

作　　者：武士杰 李绍荣[2] WU Shi-jie;LI Shao-rong

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行营业管理部 [2]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2020年第9期81-92,共12页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：本文首先构建了一个市场不确定下的两阶段微观企业投资模型,从价格机制的角度出发,在理论上阐释了在相同的市场条件下,不同的价格机制会导致企业不同的微观投资行为。特别地,当行业竞争度较低时,消费者的议价能力较弱,企业会选择过度投资,最终导致行业产能过剩,解释了成熟行业出现过剩产能的原因,扩充了对市场失灵的理解。其次,根据Shaikh和Moudud提出的面板协整方法,测度了我国部分工业企业行业2005—2015年的产能利用率。在此基础上,将行业集中度(CR4指数、CR5指数、HHI指数和Lerner指数)作为价格机制的代理变量,分别进行面板数据回归,发现行业集中度对产能利用率均有负向作用,实证检验了当行业集中度水平增加,企业占据产品定价的主导权时,行业的产能利用率会降低,导致产能过剩。This article first constructs a two-stage micro-enterprise investment model under market uncertainty.From the perspective of the price mechanism,we theoretically explains that under the same market conditions,different price mechanisms will lead to different micro-investment behaviors of the enterprise.In particular,when the industry's competition is low,consumers'bargaining power is weak,and companies will choose to overinvest,which eventually leads to overcapacity in the industry,explaining the reasons for excess capacity in mature industries and expanding the understanding of market failure.Secondly,according to the panel co-integration method proposed by Shaikh and Moudud,the capacity utilization rate of some industrial enterprises in China from 2005 to 2015 was measured.On this basis,the industry concentration(CR4 index,CR5 index,HHI index and Lerner index)is used as the proxy variable of the price mechanism,and the panel data regression is respectively carried out.We show that when the industry concentration level increases and enterprises occupy the dominant position in product pricing,the industry's capacity utilization rate will decrease,which will lead to overcapacity.

关 键 词：价格机制 产能过剩 面板协整 行业集中度 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224