某市农业与农村经济“某五年规划”实施的影响因素辨识与分析  

Identifying and Analyzing of Influential Factors on A Five-year Plan for A City’s Agriculture and Rural Economy

作　　者：金红月 韩直能[2] JIN Hongyue;HAN Zhineng(College of Foreign Languages and Literature,Jilin Narmal University,Siping 136000,China;College of Sciences,Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology,Jilin 132022,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学外国语学院,吉林四平136000 [2]吉林化工学院理学院,吉林吉林132022

出　　处：《云南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第5期54-61,共8页Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Social Science)

基　　金：延吉市发展和改革局软科学基金项目“延吉市农业和农村经济发展‘十三五’规划的定量优化及操作步骤研究”(YFJ-2017-328)。

摘　　要：以某市“某五年规划”为依据,抓住规划内容及某市制约农业和农村经济发展的瓶颈因素问题,通过制定科学的评价指标体系,提取了7类共30个直接或间接影响规划实施的社会经济因素。采用TN法及DEMATEL法确定影响规划实施的综合影响度、中心度、原因度、被影响度,有针对性地把握规划实施的切入点、重点和难点,使规划实施的具体工作能突出重点、分清主次,有的放矢地展开。DEMATEL方法是一种运用图论及矩阵转换进行系统因素分析的方法,应用DEMATEL法,可以测度影响某市农业和农村经济发展的“某五年规划”实施的主要影响因素。本研究结果可以扩展研究某市“某五年规划”实施的系统分析,实施效果的综合评价,实施效果预测与分析,具有较好的定量化依据。Taking a five-year plan in a city as the basis,the paper grasped its planning content and the bottleneck factors that restrict the city’s agriculture and rural economic development.By formulating a scientific evaluation system of index,a total of thirty socio-economic factors in seven categories which exert direct or indirect influence on the plan implementation had been extracted in the paper.TN method and DEMATEL method were employed in this paper to identify the comprehensive effect degree,centre degree,cause degree and affected degree that can influence the plan implementation.Thus,the breakthrough point,the focal point and the difficult point of the plans could be purposefully grasped in the process of implementation,which will make the whole plan be carried out in a well-targeted manner with the key points highlighted and the top and secondary priority clearly drawn a distinction.DEMATEL method was a method for system factor analysis using graph theory and matrix tools.This method could be used to measure the main influential factors on the implementation of a five-year plan in a city that affects its agriculture and rural economy.The research findings in this paper could be further extended to study the system analysis of the five-year plan implementation and the comprehensive assessment of its implementation effect,as well as the prediction and analysis of its implementation effect,this paper provided a sound quantitative basis.

关 键 词：农业 农村经济 某五年规划 TN法 DEMATEL法 

分 类 号：F923.43[经济管理]