基于FANP–云模型的污水处理扩建PPP项目风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Sewage Treatment Extension PPP Project Based on FANP-cloud Model

作　　者：刘金林 白会人[1] 王子超[2] LIU Jin-lin;BAI Hui-ren;WANG Zi-chao(School of Architectural Engineering,Dalian University,Dalian 116622,China;School of Environment and Chemical Engineering,Dalian University,Dalian 116622,China)

机构地区：[1]大连大学建筑工程学院,辽宁大连116622 [2]大连大学环境与化学工程学院,辽宁大连116622

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2020年第4期101-106,共6页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51708079)。

摘　　要：为了解决污水处理厂升级扩建PPP项目的融资风险问题,本文对污水处理厂升级扩建PPP项目进行融资风险因素识别,运用物理–事理–人理(WSR)方法论构建风险框架,在此基础上,运用模糊网络分析法(FANP)以及云模型建立污水处理厂升级扩建PPP项目融资风险模型,并以大连市某污水处理厂升级扩建PPP项目为研究背景,进行融资风险分析。计算结果表明,该项目中,物理指标中的法律风险对项目影响程度最大,人理指标中社会风险影响程度最低,该项目整体风险等级为风险一般。该模型意义明确,分析结果符合实际,具有一定的实用价值,对面临升级扩建的污水处理厂PPP项目融资风险分析提供有益的参考和指导。In order to solve the financing risks in the PPP project for upgrading and expansion of the sewage treatment plant,this paper identified the financing risk factors in such PPP project,and applied the Wuli-Shili-Renli(WSR)methodology to construct the risk framework.Based on this,this paper applied the fuzzy analytic net process(FANP)and the cloud model to establish a financing risk model of the PPP project for upgrading and expansion of the sewage treatment plant,and made the financing risk analysis against the research background of the PPP project for upgrading and expansion of a sewage treatment plant in Dalian City.The calculation results show that in the project,the legal risk in the physical index has the greatest impact on the project,while the social risk in the human resource index has the lowest impact.The overall risk level of the project is general risk.The significance of the model is clear,the analysis results are in line with the actual situation,and has certain practical value.It provides useful reference value and guiding significance for PPP project financing risk analysis of sewage treatment plant facing upgrading and expansion.

关 键 词：融资风险 污水处理厂 PPP WSR FANP–云模型 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]