赡抚比对农户农业生产意愿的影响研究——基于湖北省769户农户的调查  

Impact of the Ratio of Supporting the Elderly and Raising Children on Famers’Agricultural Production Willingness:Based on the Survey of 769 Households in Hubei Province

作　　者：王祥礼 罗小锋[1,2] 余威震 唐林 WANG Xiang-li;LUO Xiao-feng;YU Wei-zhen;TANG Lin(College of Economics&Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2020年第7期1674-1684,共11页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(20AZD091);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(15YJAZH050);农业农村部软科学项目(202007);农业农村部软科学项目(2018032)。

摘　　要：保护农户的种粮积极性,提高农户农业生产意愿,对巩固我国农业的基础性地位、保障国家粮食安全具有重大意义。基于湖北省潜江、宜昌、襄阳和黄冈四市的769份实地调研数据,以家庭负担为切入视角,运用Logit回归模型研究赡抚比对农户农业生产意愿的影响,并进一步分析不同条件下赡抚比对农户农业生产意愿影响的异质性。结果表明:(1)赡抚比对农户农业生产意愿产生显著正向影响,赡抚比越大,农户继续从事农业生产的意愿越强;(2)不同年龄段农户所面临的赡抚情况存在差异,使得赡抚比对非老龄组农户农业生产意愿产生显著正向影响,而在老龄组农户中却不显著;(3)针对不同收入水平的农户家庭,赡抚比所带来的经济与时间的双重压力对农户农业生产意愿的影响程度不同,从而造成赡抚比在低收入组、中等收入组和高收入组的影响呈现出"显著-不显著-显著"的变化规律。It is of great significance to protect farmers’grain cultivation enthusiasm and agricultural production willingness so as to consolidate the foundation of agriculture in economy and guarantee national food security.Based on the field survey data of 769 rural households in Hubei Province,using the family burden as the perspective,the paper analyzes the effect of the ratio of supporting the elderly and raising children on agricultural production willingness by using Logit regression model.And the paper further studies the agricultural production willingness heterogeneity affected by the ratio under different conditions.The main finds are as follows:(1)the ratio of supporting the elderly and raising children has a significant positive impact on farmers’agricultural production willingness,and the bigger the ratio is,the stronger the willingness is.(2)Owing to the differences in supporting conditions faced by farmers of different age groups,the ratio has a significant positive effect on the non-aging groups’agricultural production willingness,but has little effect on the old age groups,(3)For the households with different income levels,the economic and time pressure brought by the ratio has various influences on the production willingness which are significant in the low and high income groups,while not significant in the medium income groups.

关 键 词：家庭负担 赡抚比 农业生产意愿 异质性 湖北省 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]