中国洪水预报系统中动态考虑雨量站列表与权重研究  

Research on Dynamic Consideration of Rainfall Station List and Weight in National Flood Forecasting System

作　　者：李丽[1] 王加虎[1] 陈明霞 冯艳[2] 张佳鹏 LI Li;WANG Jia-hu;CHEN Ming-xia;FENG Yan;ZHANG Jia-peng(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Songliao Water Resources Com mission,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]水利部松辽水利委员会,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第9期63-66,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：中国电力建设股份有限公司资助项目(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC150806);国家自然科学基金项目(41271042)。

摘　　要：中国洪水预报系统功能完善、架构完整,但在雨量站及其流程控制上仍可进一步完善。为此,分析了雨量站变迁给洪水预报带来的影响,并给出了两套解决方案,最佳方案用于修改系统,即基于流域特征按照泰森多边形法动态确定雨量站列表和权重;临时解决方案,即剔除哑站后将权重同倍比放大。实例应用结果表明,改进的雨量站数据控制流程有助于改善预报方案。研究结果对提高中洪系统的应用效果及相关系统的设计研发等具有重要意义。National Flood Forecasting System(NFFS)has perfect functions and complete structure,but it can still be further improved in rainfall station and its process control.This paper analyzes the impact of rainfall station changes on flood forecasting,and gives two solutions:one is the best solution,which is used to modify the system,that is,to dynamically determine the list and weight of rainfall stations according to the Thiessen polygon based on basin characteristics;The other is a temporary solution,that is,the weight is multiplied by the ratio after the dumb station is removed.The application results show that the improved data control flow of rainfall stations is helpful to improve the forecasting scheme.The research results are of great significance to improve the application effect of NFFS and the design and development of the related systems.

关 键 词：中国洪水预报系统 数据流程控制 雨量站列表和权重 改善方案 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]