中央银行最优目标下的均衡汇率区间研究--基于资本项目开放度约束  

Research on the Equilibrium Exchange Rate Range under Optimal Target of the Central Bank:Based on the Restriction of Capital Account Openness

作　　者：蔚立柱 赵越强 陆长荣 WEI Li-zhu;ZHAO Yue-qiang;LU Chang-rong(Applied Economics Postdoctoral Mobile Station,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;China Foreign Exchange Trading Center,Shanghai 200000,China;School of Foreign Languages,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学应用经济学博士后流动站,上海200433 [2]中国外汇交易中心,上海200000 [3]同济大学外国语学院,上海200092

出　　处：《商业研究》2020年第7期102-111,共10页Commercial Research

摘　　要：合理的均衡汇率不仅要考虑基本面的因素,更要与中央银行的货币政策最优目标相一致。基于开放经济模型,本文引入资本项目开放度的约束,在最优化中央银行福利函数的基础上得到人民币均衡汇率表达关系式。由于中央银行在通货膨胀目标与经济增长目标权重分配的外生性,合理的均衡汇率将以区间的形式存在。通过分析1999.3-2019.9的实际有效汇率与均衡汇率区间,发现:(1)中央银行货币政策目标权重的分配影响均衡汇率区间的边界;(2)滞后的资本项目开放导致汇率失衡,且不会被“汇改”和货币政策目标权重变化扭转;(3)过早的资本项目开放也会导致汇率失衡,但随着经济基本面增长和汇率制度完善,汇率逐渐向均衡汇率区间均值处收敛;(4)资本项目渐进式开放既有助于汇率合理均衡,也有助于提高央行货币政策目标调控区间和自主性。At present,the reasonable equilibrium exchange rate should not only consider the basic factors,but also be consistent with the optimal target of monetary policy of the central bank.Based on ball′s(1999)open economy model,this paper introduces the constraint of capital account openness,and obtains the expression of RMB equilibrium exchange rate on the basis of optimizing the central bank′s welfare function.Due to the externality of the central bank′s weight distribution between inflation target and economic growth target,a reasonable equilibrium exchange rate will exist in the form of interval.Based on the analysis of the real effective exchange rate and equilibrium exchange rate range from March 1999 to September 2019,it is found that:(1)the allocation of the central bank′s monetary policy target weight affects the boundary of the equilibrium exchange rate range;(2)the lagging capital account opening leads to the exchange rate imbalance and will not be reversed by the“exchange rate reform”and the change of monetary policy target weight;(3)the early capital account openness will also lead to the exchange rate loss,however,with the growth of economic fundamentals and the improvement of exchange rate system,the exchange rate gradually converges to the average value of the equilibrium exchange rate range;(4)the gradual openness of capital account is not only conducive to the reasonable balance of exchange rate,but also to the improvement of the target control range and autonomy of monetary policy of the central bank.

关 键 词：中央银行 均衡汇率区间 资本项目开放 货币政策函数 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]