基于经济气象因素的月用电负荷预测模型研究  

Study on the forecasting model of monthly power load based on economic and meteorological factors

作　　者：汪付华[1] 周后福[2] 戴金源 张屏[1] 董平安[1] 张怀念 刘璐 WANG Fuhua;ZHOU Houfu;DAI Jinyuan;ZHANG Ping;DONG Pingan;ZHANG Huainian;LIU Lu(Huaibei Meteorological Bureau of Anhui,Huaibei 235037,China;Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Hefei 230031,China;State Grid Huaibei Power Supply Company,Huaibei 235000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省淮北市气象局,安徽淮北235037 [2]安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥230031 [3]国网淮北供电公司,安徽淮北235000

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2020年第5期78-82,共5页Power Demand Side Management

基　　金：安徽省公益性科研项目(1604f0804002);安徽省气象局科技基金(KM201709)。

摘　　要：基于2012—2018年安徽省淮北地区月用电负荷、宏观经济数据和气象观测资料,运用相关分析、多元回归分析和曲线拟合等方法,将实际用电负荷分解为趋势负荷和波动负荷,分析趋势负荷与经济数据的关系建立基于经济指标的趋势负荷预测模型,拟合率达到99.3%;研究波动负荷与气象因子的关系建立基于气象因子的波动负荷预测模型,拟合率达到97.8%;经测试模型的泛化能力较高,符合设计要求。将研究成果作为新的服务手段为电力部门提供更加专业、定量的服务产品,为淮北电网运营调度提供科学依据,取得了明显的社会经济效益。Based on the electric load,macroeconomic dataand meteorological observation data in Huaibei of Anhui from2012 to 2018,some equations are built by using correlation analy-sis,multiple regression analysis and curve fitting method.The actu-al power load is divided into trend load and fluctuating load.Thetrend load forecast model is established based on economic indexafter the relationship between trend load and economic data is ana-lyzed.The fitting rate of the model reaches 99.3%.The forecastmodel of fluctuating load is built based on meteorological factors af-ter the relationship between fluctuating load and meteorologicalfactors are analyzed.The fitting rate of the model reaches 97.8%.The application of these results provides scientific basis for opera-tion and dispatch of Huaibei Power Grid,and it has achieved obvi-ous social and economic benefits.

关 键 词：用电负荷 趋势负荷 气象负荷 预测模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]