灌区广义水资源不确定性多目标优化配置  

Multi-objective optimal allocation of generalized water resources in irrigation district under uncertainty

作　　者：岳琼 郭萍[1] 唐毅宽 赵敏 YUE Qiong;GUO Ping;TANG Yikuan;ZHAO Min(Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学中国农业水问题研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2020年第4期168-174,183,共8页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0403201)。

摘　　要：针对农业水资源配置系统的复杂性和不确定性,构建模糊可信性随机多目标农业水资源优化配置模型,以农业灌溉净经济效益最大和绿水利用占比最大为目标,对丰水年、平水年和枯水年下不同分区各生育阶段的水稻灌溉水量进行优化配置。将模型应用于湖北省漳河灌区,目标权重组合分别为(0.5,0.5)、(0.75,0.25)和(0.25,0.75),可信性水平取0.5、0.6、0.7、0.8、0.9和1.0,得到不同情景下农业水资源配置方案。结果表明:多目标规划模型能够很好统筹社会经济发展目标与资源节约目标,优化方案的绿水利用占比在0.835以上,经济效益最高达14.153亿元;更高的可信性水平对应更低的系统效益与更高的绿水利用占比,丰富的优化方案能够帮助决策者权衡系统收益与违规风险;当水资源短缺时,应该优先保证抽穗期和孕穗期的作物需水,使因缺水造成的水稻减产损失最小化。总的来说,优化模型所得到的水资源配置方案能够为漳河灌区水资源管理者提供理论指导,同时为类似地区的农业水资源优化配置提供参考。To address complexity and uncertainty existed in agricultural water resources allocation system,a fuzzy credibility-constrained stochastic multi-objective programming model for optimization of agricultural water resources allocation was developed,with the objective to balance agricultural profit and green water utilization ratio.The model was applied to Zhanghe Irrigation District to optimally allocate irrigation water to rice in different sub-areas under different time periods in different hydrological years(wet year,normal year,and dry year).Weight scenarios of objectives were set as(0.5,0.5),(0.75,0.25),and(0.25,0.75),and credibility levels were set as 0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9,and 1.0.According to flexible optimal agricultural water allocation schemes,it can be summarized as:green water utilization ratio of planning schemes were all above 0.835,and system net economic benefit was up to 14.153×108 yuan;multi-objective programming model performed well in balancing social-economic development target and water resources conservation goal;optimal results can trade off system benefit and constraint violation risk;the model framework and solving method can apply to other similar regions to guide sustainable agricultural water resources management.

关 键 词：农业水资源 优化配置 不确定性 模糊可信性约束 随机多目标规划 漳河灌区 

分 类 号：S274[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV213.4[农业科学—农业工程]