我国居民杠杆率现状及影响因素研究  

A Study on the Current Situation and Influencing Factors of the Household Leverage Ratio in China

作　　者：阮健弘[1] 刘西[1] 叶欢[1] RUAN Jianhong;LIU Xi;YE Huan(Statistics and Analysis Department,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行调查统计司,北京100800

出　　处：《金融研究》2020年第8期18-33,共16页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：中国人民银行2018年度重点课题项目资助。

摘　　要：近年来,我国居民部门杠杆率的快速上升引起社会各界关注。本文使用货币信贷和城镇储户调查数据,对我国居民部门杠杆率和偿债能力现状进行了分析,并运用各省住户贷款数据计算各省的居民杠杆率,使用面板数据模型对居民杠杆率上升的原因进行了实证分析。结果表明,房价的快速上涨和住房销售的增长都对居民部门杠杆率的上升有显著正向影响,其中房价上涨的影响程度更大。此外,金融发展水平和老年人抚养比对居民杠杆率有正向影响,少年人抚养比对居民杠杆率有负向影响。The rapidly increasing leverage ratio of China's household sector has attracted more and more attention in recent years.It is of great practical significance to analyze the current household sector leverage ratio and what causes it to increase.This paper analyzes the leverage ratio and debt paying ability of Chinese households using data from household loans and a survey on urban depositors.It also empirically studies the reasons for the rapidly increasing household leverage ratio using the regional household sector leverage ratio,calculated via regional household loans.The data demonstrate the continual rapid growth of China's household leverage ratio,which was 60.5%in 2018.The ratio has remained well above the household leverage ratios of other emerging countries.The household leverage ratio in China is lower than that of major European and American countries,but higher than that of Japan and the euro area.The household leverage ratio in China is close to the international warning line of 65%.All previous big increases in China's household leverage ratio were driven by the increase in household housing loans,which is very common during housing market expansion.Furthermore,the household leverage ratio has prominent structural problems.From the debt purpose perspective,household debt mainly consists of housing loans.From the borrower perspective,the amount of one loan contract increases as the distribution of debt becomes centralized.From the perspective of debt paying ability,some low-income households and aged populations are under greater debt pressure.From the assets and liabilities perspective,the average asset liability ratio of urban depositors in China is approximately 10%and relatively stable.However,most of the household sector's assets are concentrated in real estate.Thus,the financial asset liability ratio of China's household sector is high,reaching 37.9%in 2018.This paper uses provincial household loan data to compute provincial household leverage ratio data and then applies the panel data model to

关 键 词：居民杠杆率 城镇储户调查 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]