房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究  

On the Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Property Taxes

作　　者：刘建丰 于雪 彭俞超 许志伟[4] LIU Jianfeng;YU Xue;PENG Yuchao;XU Zhiwei(School of Finance,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences;School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics;Antai College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院,上海201620 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [3]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081 [4]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《金融研究》2020年第8期34-53,共20页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划办公室一般项目:“不确定条件下的大类资产配置、宏观经济后果与政策应对:基于HANKDSGE框架”(编号:2019BJL005);国家自然科学基金青年项目:“基于企业脱实向虚行为的中国货币政策有效性研究”(编号:71903208)资助。

摘　　要：本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。As an important and stable source of fiscal revenue for local governments in mature market economies,the housing property tax has unique benefits,such as supporting local infrastructure construction and public services,regulating income distribution,and promoting social equity.Since the advent of China's housing-stock era and the reduction of land-based fiscal revenue,the urgency of housing property tax reform has increased.However,the imminent introduction of the housing property tax will have a major impact on consumption,investment,output,and financial stability,due to the real estate industry's long economic chain and wide range of connections.As housing property tax reform has an impact on the macro economy by affecting the real estate market,it is highly important to study the macroeconomic effects of levying a real estate tax,and to provide theoretical support for housing property tax reform.The current domestic and foreign literature on real estate taxes focuses on its impact on housing prices.However,due to the special status of real estate in the national economy,housing property tax will affect investment in real estate development and in the real economy.It will also influence residential consumption,economic growth,and financial stability by affecting housing prices.Based on the above considerations,this paper extends Dong et al.(2019)and analyzes the macroeconomic effects of housing property taxes by examining entrepreneurs'portfolio decisions on real estate purchases and real economy investments and incorporating important economic indicators such as housing prices,investments,and outputs into the mainstream New Keynesian framework.The paper makes two main contributions to the literature.First,it discusses the impact of introducing a housing property tax on both the real estate market and the real economy.Second,it considers the different impacts of levying a housing property tax when banks can or cannot clearly distinguish whether entrepreneurs'loans are invested in the real economy or real estate

关 键 词：房产税 宏观经济效应 房价 企业杠杆率 动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F124F224