美国财政政策对中国实体经济的动态溢出效应研究  

Research on the Dynamic Spillover Effect of US Fiscal Policy on China’s Real Economy

作　　者：吴安兵 黄寰[2] 张燕燕 Wu Anbing;Huang Huan;Zhang Yanyan

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院 [2]成都理工大学商学院 [3]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2020年第8期117-134,M0004,共19页World Economy Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“风险冲击、政府担保与最优宏观审慎政策研究——基于金融加速器视角”(批准号:20YJC790172)的资助。

摘　　要：文章基于SV-TVP-FAVAR模型从总量和细分角度经验分析了美国财政政策对中国实体经济的动态溢出效应。研究表明,在固定汇率制度下美国财政支出扩张或财政收入缩减主要通过利率渠道对中国实体经济产生正向促进效应。随着人民币汇率制度改革,通过汇率渠道使中国经常账户受损对实体经济产生增强的负向溢出效应。在经济萧条时期,美国财政政策的乘数效应及其对中国实体经济的溢出效应较强。美国在2005年之前扩大财政赤字对中国实体投资、实体消费与物价分别具有递增、平滑和递减的正向溢出效应,2005年之后对中国实体投资和实际产出具有增强的正向刺激作用。特朗普政府缩减财政赤字率1%短期内引起中国实体投资下降0. 0244%,中长期内导致中国实际产出下降0. 01%,转移支付削减1%会引起中国实体投资和实体消费分别下降0. 0218%和0. 0249%,企业所得税、生产与进口税降低1%给中国实体投资带来0. 015%~0. 03%的提升。Based on the SV-TVP-FAVAR model,this paper empirically analyzes the dynamic spillover effects of US fiscal policy on China’s real economy from the perspective of total volume and subdivision. The results show that:( 1) Under the fixed exchange rate system,the expansion of fiscal expenditure or fiscal revenue in the United States mainly has a positive effect on China’s real economy through interest rate channels. With the reform of the RMB exchange rate system,China’s current account is subject to exchange rate channels. The damage has an enhanced negative spillover effect on the real economy. During the economic depression,the multiplier effect of the US fiscal policy and its spillover effect on China’ s real economy are stronger.( 2) The United States’ fiscal deficit before 2005 has a positive spillover effect on China’ s physical investment,physical consumption and price level,and has had an enhanced positive stimulus effect on real investment and real output in China after 2005. effect.( 3) The Trump administration reduced the fiscal deficit rate by 1% in the short term,causing a reduction of China’ s real investment by0. 0244%. In the medium and long term,China’s real output will decrease by about 0. 01%,A 1% decrease in transfer payments would cause a 0. 0218% decrease in real investment and 0. 0249% decrease in real consumption. Each 1% reduction in corporate income tax or production and import tax will boom the real investment by 0. 015% to 0. 03%.

关 键 词：美国财政政策 实体经济 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F817.12[经济管理—财政学] F124