2013~2017年山西省乙型肝炎时空聚集性特征及变化趋势研究  

Study on spatial-temporal clustering characteristics and changing trend of hepatitis B,Shanxi province,2013-2017

作　　者：贺亚琴[1] 罗小飞[1] 于颖洁[1] 魏志云[1] 桑志宏[1] 马士超 王鑫 HE Ya-qin;LUO Xiao-fei;YU Ying-jie;WEI Zhi-yun;SANG Zhi-hong;MA Shi-chao;WANG Xin(Shanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Taiyuan,Shanxi,030012,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省疾病预防控制中心,山西太原030012

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2020年第7期487-489,492,共4页Preventive Medicine Tribune

基　　金：山西省卫生计生委公共卫生专项科研课题(项目编号:2018GW37)。

摘　　要：目的了解山西省乙型肝炎报告发病率的时空分布特征,为乙肝防控策略提供依据。方法收集山西省2013~2017年119个县(市/区)乙肝的发病率等数据,描述乙肝发病的时间、空间分布特征,通过GeoDa 1.2.0和SaTScan9.6软件进行空间自相关性和扫描统计量分析,寻找乙肝发病的热(冷)点地区及其空间变化趋势,分析其时空聚集性,并对高聚集区进行趋势预测。结果2013~2017年山西省5年间报告发病率呈逐年下降趋势;乙肝发病率呈空间正相关(Moran’s I系数为0.544~0.725,P<0.01),高-高聚集区域集中在运城市各县(市/区)和侯马市(RR=2.99,LLR=16944.75,P<0.01);时间序列拟合模型效果较好,2018年高聚集区发病率将进一步降低。结论2013~2017年山西省乙肝发病无明显季节分布特征,在空间上呈聚集性分布,预测模型拟合精度高。Objective To understand the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of hepatitis B(HB)in Shanxi province,so as to provide the evidence for the prevention and control strategy of hepatitis B.Methods The HB incidence data of 119 counties(cities/districts)in Shanxi province during 2013-2017 was collected to describe the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics.The spatial autocorrelation and scanning statistics were analyzed to find out the hot(cold)area and its spatial change trend of hepatitis B by using GeoDa 1.2.0 and SaTScan 9.6 software.The clustering of high HB incidence areas was predicted.Results The reported incidence of hepatitis B was decreased year by year during 2013-2017 in Shanxi province,and the spatially positive correlation was found(Moran’s I values ranged from 0.544 to 0.725 all P<0.01).The analysis results showed that the high-high aggregation areas with high incidence of HB located in all counties of Yuncheng city and Houma city(RR=2.99,LLR=16944.75,P<0.01).The time series fitting model was effective,and the incidence of high concentration area will be further reduced in 2018.Conclusion The reported incidence of hepatitis B in Shanxi province from 2013 to 2017 is no summit of peak season,while clustered in space.The prediction model has high fitting precision.

关 键 词：乙型肝炎 发病率 时空聚集性 趋势预测 

分 类 号：R512.6[医药卫生—内科学]