贸易、就业与中国农村贫困  

Trade,Employment and Rural Poverty in China

作　　者：陈思宇 陈斌开[2] CHEN Si-yu;CHEN Bin-kai

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《改革》2020年第9期80-93,共14页Reform

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“转型发展新阶段中国经济增长动力研究”(14ZDB120)。

摘　　要：精准扶贫、精准脱贫是中国减少农村贫困人口的重要方略,产业扶贫则是精准扶贫、精准脱贫的主要实现手段。在全球化快速扩张背景下,如何有效实施产业扶贫并完成减贫目标,是关乎国家发展的重要问题。在系统性梳理全球化和中国农村贫困的典型事实和发展历程的基础上,研究出口贸易冲击对贫困发生率的影响及其机制。基于地区统计年鉴和《中国农村贫困监测报告》,实证研究发现,出口贸易冲击显著降低了地区贫困发生率。结合2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据对影响机制作进一步检验发现,贸易冲击通过提高农村人口外出务工率和增强移民网络效应,来增加家庭人均收入。为彻底解决农村贫困问题,一方面要扩大开放程度,充分利用贸易红利促进产业扶贫的实现,另一方面要发展国内市场,以应对全球经济的波动。Targeted poverty alleviation is an important policy for reducing rural poverty in China,which depends on industrial poverty alleviation as the main method to realize.In the context of rapid globalization,how to implement industrial poverty alleviation effectively and achieve poverty reduction goals is a significant issue for national development.Based on systematically sorting out the typical facts and development processes of globalization and rural poverty in China,this paper studies the impact and mechanism of the impact of export trade shocks on the incidence of poverty.We collect data from regional statistical yearbooks and China’s rural poverty monitoring reports for empirical studies,with results that export trade shocks have significantly reduced regional poverty rates.Combined with 2010-2018 China Family Panel Studies data to examine the impact mechanism further,it was found that the trade shock helps to add the family income by increasing the number of migrant workers and enhancing the network effect of migration.In order to completely alleviate poverty in China,on the one hand,we need to increase the degree of openness,make full use of the trade advantages to promote the realization of industrial poverty alleviation,and on the other hand,we need to develop the domestic market to cope with the fluctuations of the global economy.

关 键 词：贸易冲击 农村贫困 外出就业 移民网络 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]