黄河流域布病时空分布特征及影响因素研究  

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Brucellosis in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：赵芳[1,2] 安梦阳 卜腾霄 范薇 杨泞溪 张美如 ZHAO Fang;AN Mengyang;BU Tengxiao;FAN Wei;YANG Ningxi;ZHANG Meiru(Henan University College of Environment and Planning,Henan Kaifeng 475004,China;Henan University Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions,Ministry of Education,Henan Kaifeng 475004,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封475004 [2]河南大学黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室,河南开封475004

出　　处：《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第5期505-514,共10页Journal of Henan University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41601091);河南大学地理学优势学科建设经费(CX0000A0550075)。

摘　　要：布病在我国起源于20世纪50年代,是一种以牛羊为主要传染源的人畜共患类传染病.由于黄河流域历来是农牧业重要的支撑带,因而研究农牧业较为发达的黄河流域布病的时空分布规律具有代表性.以黄河流域覆盖到的9个省为研究区,借助SPSS的统计分析和ArcGIS的制图输出功能,研究布病发病的时空分布规律,同时从社会经济、环境及气象3个方面选取11种指标探讨其与布病发病人数的相关性.结果表明:在空间上,布病发病人数呈现从北到南逐渐减少的趋势;在时间上,20世纪50-70年代为布病初始爆发期,80-90年代中期呈低水平平稳波动且布病得到有效控制,1994年后再次出现爆发性增长,到2015年发病总人数达到历年最高;从影响因素看,第一、第二和第三产业产值以及废水排放、常住人口和城镇化率6类要素与布病发病的相关性最为密切,在多数省份都通过了P<0.01的显著性检验;废水排放量与黄河流域布病发病人数的相关性超过了0.9(P<0.01),预示着未来应加强对水污染的治理.此外,气温在宁夏、甘肃、山西、陕西及内蒙古5地与布病发病人数表现出显著正相关(P<0.01),体现出气候变暖对布病发病的影响.Brucellosis, originated in the 1950 s in China, is a zoonotic infectious disease with cattle and sheep as the main source of infection. It is representative to do research on brucellosis in the areas along the Yellow River for its supportive position of agriculture and animal husbandry. To explore the spatiotemporal distribution and the cause of outbreak of brucellosis, this paper collected data of outbreak of brucellosis in the 9 provinces covered by the Yellow River Basin and related it with 11 factors from social economy, environment and meteorology. Pearson correlation analysis and cartographic output were conducted to determine the relationship between outbreak of brucellosis and related factors. The results showed that: outbreak of brucellosis decreased gradually from north to south spatially. It broke out from the 1950 s to the 1970 s, and was effectively controlled from the 1980 s to the mid-1990 s, showing a low level and stable fluctuation. After 1994, there was another explosive growth and by 2015, the total number of outbreak of brucellosis reached the highest level in history in the Yellow River Basin. Among the 11 influencing factors, the output value of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, waste water discharge, resident population and urbanization rate are closely related to the incidence of brucellosis with P <0.01 in most provinces by significance test. The correlation coefficient between the total discharge of wastewater and the number of brucellosis cases in the Yellow River basin is more than 0.9(P<0.01), which indicates that controlling water pollution in the future may play a certain role in preventing the prevalence of the disease. In addition, temperature warming in Ningxia, Gansu, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia all showed a significantly positive correlation with the number of bubonic plague cases(P<0.01), reflecting the impact of climate warming on brucedosis plague, which may raise the interest of climatic scientist.

关 键 词：黄河流域 布病 时空分布 相关分析 

分 类 号：P936[天文地球—自然地理学]