基于模糊贝叶斯网络的生产线系统可靠性评价  

Reliability evaluation of production line system based on fuzzy Bayesian network

作　　者：韩凤霞 王红军[2,3,4] 邱城[1] HAN Fengxia;WANG Hongjun;QIU Cheng(China Academy of Machinery Science and Technology,Beijing 100044,CHN;Advanced Equipment Intelligent Perception and Control,Beijing International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology,BISTU,Beijing 100192,CHN;Mechanical Electrical Engineering School,BISTU,Beijing 100192,CHN;Key Laboratory of Modern Measurement and Control Technology,Ministry of Education,BISTV,Beijing 100192,CHN)

机构地区：[1]机械科学研究总院,北京100044 [2]北京信息科技大学高端装备智能感知与控制北京市国际科技合作基地,北京100192 [3]北京信息科技大学机电工程学院,北京100192 [4]北京信息科技大学现代测控技术教育部重点实验室,北京100192

出　　处：《制造技术与机床》2020年第9期45-49,共5页Manufacturing Technology & Machine Tool

基　　金：“高档数控机床与基础制造装备”科技重大专项“国产五轴联动数控机床柔性生产线可靠性评价与智能维护”(2015ZX04001002)。

摘　　要：针对航空结构件柔性生产线的整条线的失效数据或寿命数据具有小样本特点,并且其子系统的性能状态难以精确界定的问题,提出了一种有效的基于部件多维信息融合的模糊贝叶斯网络评价方法.该方法通过层次分析法对子系统实验数据、现场运维数据、相似系统的维修数据进行深度融合,引用模糊集合理论判断部件的多种运行状态,构建了整条生产线多状态的贝叶斯网络模型,突破了贝叶斯网络的以层次为准则的主客观信息的融合.在某航空结构件柔性生产系统中应用表明,正向分析中能充分利用多源融合信息进行高置信度运行可靠性评价,逆向分析能对薄弱部件进行溯源.提高了系统运行可靠性分析的效率,并为维修维护提供参考依据.Aiming at the problem that the failure data or life data of the whole line of the flexible production line of aviation structure parts have the characteristics of small sample,and the performance state of its subsystem is difficult to define accurately,an effective fuzzy Bayesian network evaluation method based on multi-dimensional information fusion of components was proposed.In this method,the subsystem experiment data,on-site operation and maintenance data and similar system maintenance data were deeply fused by analytic hierarchy process.The fuzzy set theory was used to judge the various operation states of components,and the Bayesian network model of the whole production line with multiple states was constructed,which broke through the integration of subjective and objective information of Bayesian network based on hierarchy criteria.The application in a flexible production system of aviation structural parts shows that the forward analysis can make full use of multi-source fusion information to evaluate the reliability of high confidence operation,and the reverse analysis can locate the weak parts.It improves the efficiency of system operation reliability analysis and provides reference for condition based maintenance.

关 键 词：模糊综合评价 可靠性分析 贝叶斯网 柔性生产线 

分 类 号：TH165[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]