基于主动型方法的一般公路安全风险排查——如何评估风险等级  

Inspections for safety risks of general highways based on proactive approaches:how to assess the level of risk

作　　者：金治富 JIN Zhifu(School of Traffic Management,People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing102623,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学交通管理学院,北京102623

出　　处：《汽车与安全》2020年第7期58-64,共7页Auto & Safety

摘　　要：在公路安全风险排查过程中,排查人员可以基于三种评估方法对识别出的风险隐患进行风险评估。第一种方法是定性评估方法,该方法主要借助排查人员的经验以及可以量化的判据,对风险因素进行主观评估。第二种方法是半量化评估方法,该方法借助某一风险因素导致事故发生的严重程度和可能性分别作为风险评估矩阵的行和列,然后基于该矩阵,确定该风险因素的风险等级。而且,事故发生的严重程度和可能性,以及风险等级都是可以被量化的。第三种方法是量化评估方法,任意公路区间段的安全风险等级可以借助构建安全风险指数公式来确定。第一、二种评估方法主要是针对特征要素进行的单项风险评估,第三种方法主要是针对任意道路区间段上若干要素进行综合性的评估且还可获得任意道路区间段的安全风险指数,从而识别出最为危险的道路区间段。Inspection personnel can assess the level of risk for safety risks identified during highway safety risks inspection,based on three methods of assessment.First method of assessment is a qualitative assessment method.The method is used to assess the level of risk for a risk factor subjectively by means of experience of inspection personnel,and quantifiable criteria.Second method of assessment is a semi-quantitative assessment method.The method is used to assess the level of risk for a risk factor is defined based on a risk assessment matrix.Rows and columns of the matrix are severity and likelihood of accident occurring due to a risk factor,respectively.Furthermore,severity and likelihood of accident occurring,and risk rating may be quantified.Third method is a quantitative method.The level of risk for any road segment is defined by means of formulating for highway safety risks index.First method and second method are primarily used to assess the level of risk of a feature.Third method may be used to assess risks of many features on any road segment.Additionally,third method may be also used to obtain a safety risk index of any road segment,and thus the most dangerous segment is identified.

关 键 词：定性评估 半量化评估 量化评估 风险评估矩阵 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]