基于油中溶解产物分析的油纸绝缘寿命预测模型  

An Oil-paper Insulation Life Prediction Model Based on Dissolved Products Analysis in Oil

作　　者：颜海俊 张玉波 赵坚 余长厅 YAN Haijun;ZHANG Yubo;ZHAO Jian;YU Zhangting(Electric Power Research Institute of Guangxi Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangxi Nanning 530023,China)

机构地区：[1]广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,广西南宁530023

出　　处：《广西电力》2020年第4期1-6,23,共7页Guangxi Electric Power

摘　　要：为了掌握油纸绝缘设备的绝缘性能,有必要对油纸绝缘的剩余寿命进行预测。本文选取油中溶解气体和油中溶解糠醛为参量,实现了油纸绝缘设备的寿命预测。首先,基于可靠的试验平台及充分的试验,建立了温度、油中溶解气体含量以及油中溶解糠醛含量与聚合度之间的定量关系;然后,利用一阶动力学经典模型,通过拟合确定了模型中各待定系数的具体量值,从而建立了适用于油纸绝缘设备的寿命预测模型,并提出了基于现场监测数据的剩余寿命预测方法;最后,应用所提出的预测方法对1台实际投运的变压器进行了寿命评估,由此验证了该方法可定量评估在运设备的健康状况。In order to grasp the insulation performance of oil-paper insulation equipment,it is necessary to predict the remaining life of oil-paper insulation.The dissolved gas and furfural in oil are selected as parameters to realize the life prediction of oil-paper insulation equipment in this paper.First,a quantitative relationship between the temperature,the dissolved gas content in oil,the dissolved furfural content in oil and the degree of polymerization are established based on a reliable test platform and sufficient tests.Then,by the usage of the first-order kinetic classic model,the specific values of the undetermined coefficients in the model are determined by a fitting method,and thus a life prediction model suitable for the oil-paper insulation equipment is established.And a remaining life prediction method based on field monitoring data is proposed.Finally,the proposed prediction method is used to evaluate the life of a transformer actually put into operation,so as to verify that the method can quantitatively evaluate the health of the equipment in operation.

关 键 词：油纸绝缘 糠醛含量 一阶动力学方程 寿命预测 

分 类 号：TM855[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术]