中国酒店产业的增长核算  

A Study on the Growth Accounting of Chinas Hotel Industry

作　　者：罗浩[1] 陈仁[1] LUO Hao;CHEN Ren(Business School,SunYat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学管理学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2020年第9期14-25,共12页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“供给侧改革背景下因地制宜的旅游经济增长方式研究”(71874212)资助。

摘　　要：文章基于新古典经济增长理论,采用增长核算方法,对中国酒店业增长方式进行了实证分析。鉴于生产函数中要素投入自变量之间存在的多重共线性,该文采用主成分分析法、岭回归分析法和偏最小二乘法对全国酒店业的生产函数进行估计,经过比较,选择偏最小二乘法的估计结果为基准结果。研究发现,1992—2012年间,中国酒店业的劳动和资本投入每增加1%,使产出分别增长0.47%和0.52%,行业处在由规模报酬不变到规模报酬递减的过渡期;酒店业增长主要由劳动和资本要素共同驱动,两者分别贡献了产出增长的43.36%和39.89%,处于劳动驱动增长阶段迈向投资驱动增长阶段的交接处;酒店业全要素生产率年均提高1.42%,投入产出效率逐步改进,但TFP对产业增长的贡献率仅有16.74%,尚处于粗放增长时期。Benefited from the reform and opening-up policy and the prosperity of tourism,China’s hotel industry has enjoyed rapid growth successively over many years.However,at the same time,the operating performance of the industry has not been improved.The profit margin of the whole industry is low for a long time and even shows a loss state in most years.In order to realize the sustainable growth of China’s hotel industry and the steady enhancement of its profit,it is necessary to explore the growth pattern of the hotel industry.The growth accounting method based on the theory of economic growth provides a useful tool to identify the growth pattern.At present,the growth accounting of China’s tourism industry as a whole has been seen in many literature,but the research on China’s hotel industry is almost blank.The existing literature do not consider the multi-collinearity between explanatory variables(different factors of production),and most of them adopt OLS estimation,which results in the coefficient of some explanatory variables(factor output elasticity)is not significant,and the elasticity of some factors is negative while the elasticity of others is greater than 1,which is contrary to economic theory.Through the growth accounting method,this paper intends to analyze the growth pattern of China’s hotel industry by using the Cobb-Douglas production function.In this model,revenue of star hotel is used as output index,accompanied by capital stock and employees as input index.Among them,capital stock is computed with the Perpetual Inventory Method.In view of the multi-collinearity among the independent variables of factor input in the production function,this paper uses principal component analysis,ridge regression analysis and partial least squares method to estimate the production function of hotel industry in China.After comparison,the estimation result of partial least squares method is selected as the basic result.The results show that,from 1992 to 2012,every 1%increase in labor and capital input in China�

关 键 词：酒店产业 增长核算 多重共线性 要素贡献 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]