疫情背景下的日本财政健康度分析:公共风险的穿透  

Analysis in Japan’s Fiscal Health in the Context of the Covid-19:Penetration of Public Risks

作　　者：金殿臣 Jin Dianchen

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院

出　　处：《财政科学》2020年第8期79-92,共14页Fiscal Science

摘　　要：在新冠疫情暴发前,日本财政就面临收入增长缓慢、过度依赖赤字和国债、支出刚性增长、社保与利息费用居高不下等问题。日本2020财年预算案显示,其计划新发行国债额约为32.56万亿日元,占预算收入的31.7%。预算收入高度依赖发债严重影响了日本财政的健康度,并蕴藏潜在公共风险。突如其来的新冠疫情,进一步降低了日本财政健康度。一方面,随着疫情的加速扩散,日本经济供需两端同时受到冲击,失业人数剧增,社会不稳定风险加剧,财政收入锐减。另一方面,为了降低新冠疫情对经济社会的影响,日本实施了多轮紧急经济对策,这进一步加重了财政支出负担。受此影响,2020年日本赤字率将达到14.7%,较2019年上升近12个百分点,创历史新高。从疫情视角观察日本财政健康度可以发现,日本税收收入难以应对公共卫生事件引发的公共风险,增发国债老路则导致日本实现财政稳健目标越发困难。对于中国来说,要想在未来避免陷入日本似的财政困境,不仅要在加快税制改革与严防债务风险上下功夫,而且要积极运用风险思维推动财政改革,在加强风险管理的同时,树立基于风险决策的财政政策新思维。Before the outbreak of the Covid-19,Japan’s finances has some problems such as slow income growth,excessive reliance on deficits and national debt,rigid growth in expenditures,and persistently high social security and interest expenses.Japan’s 2020 fiscal year budget shows that its planned new issuance of national debt is about 32.56 trillion yen,accounting for 31.7%of budget revenue.The high dependence of budget revenue on debt issuance has seriously affected the health of Japan’s finances and contains potential public risks.The outbreak of Covid-19 has further reduced Japan’s fiscal health.On the one hand,with the accelerated spread of the epidemic,both supply and demand of the Japanese economy have been impacted at the same time,the number of unemployed people has increased sharply,the risk of social instability has increased,and fiscal revenue has plummeted.On the other hand,in order to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the economy and society,Japan has implemented multiple rounds of emergency economic measures,which further increased the burden of fiscal expenditures.Due to all these factors,Japan’s deficit rate will reach 14.7%in 2020,an increase of nearly 12 percentage points from 2019,a record high.Observing Japan’s fiscal health from the perspective of the epidemic,it can be found that Japan’s tax revenue is difficult to cope with the public risks caused by public health incidents,and the current method of issuing additional national debt has made it more difficult for Japan to achieve fiscal stability.For China,in order to avoid falling into similar fiscal difficulties in the future,it must not only speed up tax reform and prevent debt risks,but also actively use risk thinking to promote fiscal reforms.While strengthening risk management,establish risk-based New thinking on fiscal policy for decision-making.

关 键 词：财政健康度 新冠疫情 债务依赖 风险思维 

分 类 号：F817[经济管理—财政学]