基于夜间灯光数据的中国城市电力消费模拟影响因素  

A Simulation of Electric Consumption in China’s City Based on Nighttime Light Imagery

作　　者：张莉[1,2] 谢亚楠 屈辰阳[2,3] 汪鸣泉 王茂华[2,3] ZHANG Li;XIE Yanan;QU Chenyang;WANG Mingquan;WANG Maohua(Key Labotatory of Specialty Fiber Optics and Optical Access Networks,Shanghai University,Shanghai 201210,China;Shanghai Carbon Data Research Center,Shanghai Advanced Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai 201210,China;Key Laboratory of Low-carbon Conversion Science and Engineering,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai 201210,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学特种光纤与光接入网重点实验室,上海201210 [2]中国科学院上海高等研究院上海碳数据与碳评估中心,上海201210 [3]中国科学院低碳转化科学与工程重点实验室,上海201210

出　　处：《遥感信息》2020年第4期113-123,共11页Remote Sensing Information

基　　金：中国科学院洁净能源创新研究院合作基金项目(DNL180101);国家自然科学基金项目(51778601);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602603、2016YFA0602602、2017YFA0605300)。

摘　　要：鉴于很少有系统探究城市夜间灯光与电力消费量关系影响因素的研究,提出了一种基于对数模型的评估方法,在不同社会经济因素下,探究夜间灯光数据作为城市电力消费量模拟指标的能力及其可能的影响因素。以2013年为例,基于DMSP-OLS和NPP-VIIRS 2类卫星夜间灯光数据和IPAT公式,建立对数模型,评估了城市人口、富裕程度、科技水平、平均气温和灯光离散系数等因素对中国城市夜间灯光亮度-电力消费量关系的影响。结果表明:相较于DMSP-OLS卫星,NPP-VIIRS卫星的夜间灯光亮度(NTL)与电力消费量(EPC)具有更好的相关性;城市EPC随人类活动的聚集和温度的升高而增加;城市EPC随市辖区人口比例、地区GDP、科学技术支出的升高而增加,除西部贫困地区和东北地区外,随人均GDP和第三产业GDP占比的升高而增加。There are few research on studying main factors affecting the relationship between electric power consumption(EPC)and nighttime light(NTL)at China’s city.This paper proposes an evaluation method to explore key factors affecting the EPC-NTL relationship by examining different socio-economic factors.Based on the NTL imagery from the defense meteorological satellite program(DMSP)operational linescan system(OLS)and the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite(VIIRS)onboard the Suomi national polar-orbiting partnership(NPP)satellite in 2013,using logarithmic model to quantitatively evaluate the effects on EPC-NTL relationship by examining population,affluence,technology,temperature and variation coefficient of NTL in Chinese cities.Results show that:compared with DMSP-OLS satellites,NPP-VIIRS satellites has a better relationship in NTL-EPC;EPC increases with the accumulation of human activities and the rise of temperature;EPC increases with higher population proportion,regional GDP and scientific and technological expenditure,and except for the poor areas in western and northeast,EPC increases with higher per capital GDP and the proportion of GDP in tertiary industry.

关 键 词：夜间灯光数据 电力消费量 对数模型 模拟 社会经济因素 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置] X24[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]