中国分行业物质资本存量估算(1980-2018年)  

The Estimation of China’s Physical Capital Stock:1980-2018

作　　者：杨轶波 YANG Yi-bo(Institute for Advanced Research,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,200434)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学高等研究院,200434

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2020年第8期32-45,共14页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急管理重点项目“宏观经济政策组合与系统性金融风险的防范与化解——基于大型准结构一般均衡模型的模拟分析”(批准号:71850002);国家社会科学基金重点项目“坚持和完善中国特色社会主义基本经济制度研究”(批准号:20AZD011)的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：物质资本存量是宏观经济分析中的重要指标。虽然大量研究已经对我国的物质资本存量进行了估算,但是针对分行业物质资本存量的估算研究仍十分罕见。本研究在对官方数据进行充分挖掘的基础上,采用永续盘存法对1980-2018年分19个行业的物质资本存量进行了系统的估算。相对于现有研究,本研究在时间跨度和行业分类方面均进行了拓展,此外还利用投入产出表信息对官方投资数据的潜在高估问题进行了调整。本文的估算结果显示,改革开放以来,我国物质资本存量整体上增长较快,并且在不同的改革阶段表现出了明显的行业差异。此外,自2008年全球金融危机以来,建筑、金融和房地产以及公共部门的资本产出比快速攀升,是造成我国整体经济的资本产出比出现快速上升的直接原因。Physical capital stock is a key indicator in macroeconomic analysis.Researchers have made substantial efforts on the estimation of China’s physical capital stock,however,studies focusing on the estimation of industry-level physical capital stock are still rare.Based on a comprehensive exploration of official statistical publications,this study provides a systematic estimation of the physical capital stocks using the Perpetual Inventory Method for 19 industries during the period of 1980-2018.Compared to the existing literature,the capital stock estimates in this study cover a longer period and are more detailed at industry level.Besides,adjustments are also made to overcome the over-reporting problem of official investment statistics using information from official input-output tables.The results of this study show that China has maintained a relatively fast growth in physical capital stock during the post-reform period in general,and has exhibits very different industry-specific patterns for each reform stage.The results also show that the quickened climbing in the capital-output ratios of the constructionfinance-real estate sector and of the public sector is the proximate cause for the acceleration of capital-output ratio in China’s aggregate economy.

关 键 词：物质资本存量 全社会固定资产投资 行业分类标准 永续盘存法 资本产出比 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F221