劳动力成本上升、劳动生产率与农产品出口技术复杂度——基于面板数据门槛回归模型的实证  

Rising Labor Costs,Labor Productivity and Export Sophistication of Agricultural Products:Empirical Evidence of Threshold Model of Panel Data

作　　者：李谷成[1] 孙炜 高雪[1] LI Gu-cheng;SUN Wei;GAO Xue(School of Economics&Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2020年第4期409-420,共12页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473100、71873050)。

摘　　要：在测算分省及分类农产品出口技术复杂度的基础上,构建以劳动生产率为门槛变量的门槛回归模型,探讨劳动力成本对农产品出口技术复杂度的非线性门槛效应。结果表明:近年来我国农产品出口技术复杂度大幅提高,出口竞争力不断增强,但存在所谓的“Rodrik悖论”;劳动力成本上升会对农产品出口技术复杂度产生显著负影响,但要受劳动生产率制约,存在门槛效应;随着劳动生产率的提高,这种负影响会不断减弱,直至消失;劳动力成本与劳动生产率耦合协调度高的地区倾向于拥有高的出口技术复杂度。据此,建议为提高农产品出口竞争力,应妥善处理劳动成本刚性增长的挑战,提高劳动生产率,用“生产率红利”代替“人口红利”。Based on the calculation of the export sophistication of agricultural products at the provincial level,the paper built a threshold model with labor productivity as the threshold variable to investigate the non⁃linear threshold effect of labor costs on the export sophistication of agricultural products,which led to the fol⁃lowing results.The results show that:Firstly,while the increase of export sophistication enhances the agricultur⁃al competitiveness,“Rodrik Paradox”still exists to some extent.Secondly,while the rise of labor costs will neg⁃atively influence the export sophistication of agricultural products,this negative influence is not simply linear and will be constrained by the labor productivity,and there exists nonlinear threshold effect.Thirdly,with the increase of labor productivity,the negative effects of rising labor cost on the export sophistication of agricultur⁃al products has been gradually weakened,and even disappeared in the end;In addition,regions with higher coordination of labor cost and productivity are also characterized with higher export sophistication.Thus,in order to enhance the agricultural competitiveness,the consequence of rising labor costs must be seriously considered.Therefore,it is important to raise the labor productivity and replace the“demographic dividend”with the“pro⁃ductivity dividend”.

关 键 词：劳动力成本 农产品出口技术复杂度 劳动生产率 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]