全球增暖1.5℃和2℃北太平洋年代际尺度振荡的差异  

Differences of decadal oscillations between global warming of 1.5℃and 2℃in the North Pacific

作　　者：冯静 李春[1,2] 范磊 FENG Jing;LI Chun;FAN Lei(Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室,青岛266100 [2]青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室,青岛266100

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2020年第4期442-452,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研发计划项目(2017YFA0603801)。

摘　　要：基于CESM模式对1.5℃和2℃两种增暖情景的模拟结果,对比分析了太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)和北太平洋涡旋振荡(NPGO)在全球稳定增暖1.5℃和2℃时期与工业革命前、历史时期在强度和周期上的差异。结果表明:全球稳定增暖1.5℃和2℃时期,PDO和NPGO的强度均比历史时期弱,且主周期缩短,这可能与全球增暖情景下海洋层结增强导致的Rossby波变快有关。PDO的强度和周期在全球增暖1.5℃和2℃这两种情景下没有明显差异;而NPGO的强度在全球稳定增暖2℃时期比1.5℃时有明显减弱,且周期缩短1 a左右。因此,0.5℃升温差异对PDO的强度和周期影响较小,而对NPGO的强度和周期影响较大。Based on the simulation results of CESM model under stable warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2℃,the amplitude and period of PDO and NPGO change during pre-industrial,historical and two stable warming periods are analyzed and compared.The results show that during stable warming periods of 1.5 and 2℃,the amplitude of both PDO and NPGO is weaker than that during historical period,and the time scale is decreased as well,which may be due to the acceleration of Rossby wave speed caused by enhancement of ocean layer under global warming scenarios.There are no significant differences in amplitude and time scale of PDO between the two stable warming scenarios,while the amplitude of NPGO is weaker and the period is decreased by about 1 year significantly during stable warming 2℃compared to stable warming 1.5℃period.Therefore,the 0.5℃warming difference has a little impact on the amplitude and period of PDO,while mainly influences the amplitude and period of NPGO.

关 键 词：全球变暖 太平洋年代际振荡(PDO) 北太平洋涡旋振荡(NPGO) ROSSBY波 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P73