可计算一般均衡框架下的气候变化经济影响综合评估  

Review of economic impacts from climate change under the framework of computable general equilibrium models

作　　者：王天鹏 滕飞[1] WANG Tian-Peng;TENG Fei(Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2020年第4期480-490,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：科技部“《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》编制”气候变化风险研究特别报告。

摘　　要：气候变化是21世纪人类面临的重大挑战之一,并对自然系统和社会经济系统造成了各种负面影响。对气候变化的影响进行经济评估是气候变化研究中的重要问题。而可计算一般均衡框架下的综合评估模型(CGE_IAMs)是评估气候变化经济影响的有效手段之一,文中对气候变化影响经济评估的主要CGE_IAMs进行了文献调研,并对这些模型进行了比较分析。研究表明不同模型在温室气体排放、气候参数的处理方式以及气候影响的引入机制等方面有着较大区别,因而各模型对气候变化影响的经济评估结果也有一定的差异。此外,当前CGE_IAMs在评估气候变化经济影响时存在支撑数据未及时更新、方法不细致以及评估不全面等问题。未来该领域的相关研究应该更加关注于模型与支撑数据的精细化和开源化,此外还应加强CGE_IAMs中经济模块与复杂气候模式的耦合。Climate change is one of the major challenges for humanity in the 21st century,which has caused various negative impacts on natural and human systems.The assessment of economic damage caused by climate change is an important issue.The integrated assessment models under the computable general equilibrium framework(CGE_IAMs)is one of the effective means to assess the economic impacts of climate change.This paper reviews main CGE_IAMs applied in assessing climate impacts now,and analyzes the principles of these relevant models.The results show that different models have great differences in dealing with greenhouse gas emissions,climate parameters and the mechanisms of introducing climate impacts.Therefore,the economic assessment results are also different among CGE_IAMs.In addition,the current CGE_IAMs are lack of timely updating of supporting data.The methodologies are also inadequate in these CGE_IAMs.This paper suggests that future research in this field should pay more attention to the refinement and open source of models and supporting data,and the coupling of economic modules with complex climate models in CGE_IAMs should be strengthened.

关 键 词：气候变化 可计算一般均衡 综合评估模型 经济影响评估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] F113[经济管理—国际贸易]