新冠肺炎疫情对湖北省企业职工基本养老保险基金平衡的影响  

Impact of Covid-19 on the Balance of Basic Old-age Insurance Fund for Enterprise Employees in Hubei Province

作　　者：薛惠元[1] 曹思远 周昊杨 XUE Huiyuan;CAO Siyuan;ZHOU Haoyang

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [2]杜伦大学商学院,英国杜伦DH13LE

出　　处：《决策与信息》2020年第10期37-48,共12页Decision & Information

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“机关事业单位养老保险隐性债务、基金缺口与财务可持续性研究”(编号:16YJC630152);武汉大学抗击新冠肺炎疫情人文社会科学应急研究专项“新冠肺炎疫情对社会保障的影响及应对策略研究”(编号:2020YJ050)成果。

摘　　要：基于理论分析,运用保险精算方法和Logistic人口预测模型,测算新冠肺炎疫情对湖北省企业职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡的影响。研究发现:新冠肺炎疫情会使2020年湖北省企业职工基本养老保险基金收不抵支的情况加剧;疫情对基金收支平衡的影响将至少持续至2025年;在2020年疫情对基金当期结余产生重大冲击后,2021年这一影响将骤减,但2021年后这一影响又呈现扩大趋势;如果不采取财政补贴、养老金中央调剂等措施,疫情对基金累计结余的影响将逐渐被放大。建议:适当增加湖北省中央调剂金拨缴差额,提高各级财政对养老基金的补贴力度,向湖北省合理划拨部分全国社会保障基金,加大"稳就业"和"保居民就业"力度。The actuarial method of social old-age insurance and the Logistic population prediction model are used to calculate the impact of the Covid-19 on the balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for enterprise employees in Hubei Province on the basis of theoretical analysis.The main findings are as follows:the Covid-19 will mainly exacerbate the situation where fund income is not equal to expenditure in 2020;the impact of the Covid-19 on the balance of income and expenditure will last at least until 2025;the impact of the Covid-19 on the fund income and expenditure will decline sharply in 2021,but after then,there will still be a tendency of repercussion;and if the measures such as financial subsidy and central pension adjustment are not be adopted,the negative impact of the Covid-19 on the accumulated fund balance will be gradually amplified.Hence the following practical implications are put forward:First,increasing the Hubei Province’s difference between the central reallocation fund’s payment and allocation appropriately;Second,increasing the financial subsidies at all levels to the fund;Third,allocating part of the national social security fund to Hubei Province reasonably;Finally,increasing the effort to"stabilize employment"and"ensure the employment of residents".

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 企业职工基本养老保险 养老保险基金 Logistic人口预测模型 湖北省 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]