天津市慢性乙肝社会负担指标构建及其权重系数的初步研究  

A preliminary study on the social burden index construction and weight coefficient of chronic hepatitis B in Tianjin

作　　者：何海艳[1] 张国平 魏兆飞 赵莹[1] 吴伟慎[1] 张颖[1] HE Hai-yan;ZHANG Guo-ping;WEI Zhao-fei;ZHAO Ying;WU Wei-shen;ZHANG Ying(Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市疾病预防控制中心病毒性肝炎科,天津300011

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2020年第8期596-599,共4页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：中国肝炎防治基金会-中国乙肝防控科研基金资助课题(YGFK20180031)。

摘　　要：目的构建天津市慢性乙肝社会负担评价指标体系,并计算其指标的权重系数,为天津市慢性乙肝防治提供科学依据。方法通过查阅文献,专家讨论,初步确定慢性乙肝社会负担指标,包括5个一级指标、31个二级指标。选取相关领域的专家28名,采用德尔菲(Delphi)法,进行3轮专家咨询,收集专家对天津市慢性乙肝社会负担相关指标的判定及社会负担相对大小的评价。采用SPSS 19.0计算各指标的权重、专家权威系数、专家积极系数和专家协调系数。结果本调查共回收27份专家咨询表,第1轮专家咨询积极系数为96.43%,第2、3轮均为100%。专家均为副高级及以上职称,专家权威系数为0.93。第1、2、3轮专家协调系数分别为0.257、0.291和0.540,均有统计学意义(P<0.01),专家对各指标重要性排位的一致性较好。最终确定天津市慢性乙肝社会负担的一级指标5个,包括对社会人群心理的影响、对社会劳动生产力压力的影响、对社会经济压力的影响、对政府形象的影响和对社会安定的影响,其重要性比例分别为100%、92.11%、84.21%、81.58%和78.95%。二级指标27个,其中疾病迁延不愈,反复发作,乙肝治疗总费用权重系数最大(10.56),影响社会文化权重系数最小(1.37)。结论本研究构建的天津市慢性乙肝社会负担的评价指标具有一定的科学性,合理性,为进一步探讨天津市慢性乙肝的综合疾病负担、指导防治奠定了基础。Objective To construct a system for evaluating the social burden of chronic hepatitis B in Tianjin,to calculate the weight coefficients of its indexes,and to provide the scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of chronic hepatitis B in Tianjin.Methods The social burden of chronic hepatitis B was confirmed by literature review and expert discussion,which included 5 first level indicators and 31 second level indicators.Twenty eight experts were selected,and the Delphi method was used to design the social burden index table,the expert consultation was conducted 3 times,the experts’judgments on the social burden related indicators of chronic hepatitis B in Tianjin and the evaluation of the relative size of the social burden were collected.Weight of each index,expert authority coefficient,positive coefficient of experts and expert coordination coefficient were calculated.The used software was SPSS 19.0.Results A total of 27 expert consultation forms were recovered in this investigation.The positive coefficients of the first,second and third rounds of expert consultation were 96.43%,100%and 100%.The experts were deputy senior and above,the expert authoritative coefficients of the three rounds were 0.93,and the expert coordination coefficients in the first,second and third rounds were 0.257,0.291 and 0.540 respectively,(P<0.01).The consistency of the ranking of the importance of indicators for experts was good.Finally,five first-level indicators of the social burden of chronic hepatitis B in Tianjin were determined,including the psychological impact on social groups,the impact on social labor productivity pressure,the impact on social and economic pressure,the impact on government image and the impact on social stability,the importance ratios were 100%,92.11%,84.21%,81.58%and 78.95%.There were 27 second-level indicators,among which,the weight coefficients of the disease persistent,disease recurrentand total cost of hepatitis B treatment were the highest(10.56),the weight coefficient of the impact on social c

关 键 词：慢性乙肝 社会负担 德尔菲法 指标体系 权重系数 

分 类 号：R512.62[医药卫生—内科学]