中等收入陷阱的存在性讨论及跨越机制分析  

The discussion of the existence of the middle-income trap and the analysis of the spanning mechanism

作　　者：寇宏伟 陈璋[1] KOU Hong-wei;CHEN Zhang(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《科学学研究》2020年第9期1579-1586,1705,共9页Studies in Science of Science

摘　　要：不发达国家独特的技术进步过程是分析中等收入陷阱问题的起点。在此过程中,不发达国家将经历三个阶段:转移性技术进步阶段、替代性技术进步阶段、创新性技术进步阶段。从第一阶段向第二阶段过渡过程中的技术进步方式及需求规模的变化是中等收入陷阱产生的主要原因,而最终本国需求规模的大小决定了其跨越中等收入陷阱的难度。本国需求规模越大,跨越则越容易。同时,本文采用2011年-2017年我国28个行业年度面板数据建立固定效应模型对理论分析结果进行检验,结果符合本文假说:需求规模越大,则技术进步越容易。The unique technological progress process of the underdeveloped countries is the starting point of analyzing the middle-income trap.In this paper,the process is divided into three stages:the transfer technology progress stage,the alternative technology progress stage and the innovative technology progress stage.The main reason for the middle-income trap is the change of technological progress mode and demand scale in the process of transition from the first stage to the second stage,and the size of domestic demand limits the difficulty of crossing the middle-income trap.The larger the scale of domestic demand,the lower the difficulty of spanning.At the same time,this paper uses the annual panel data of 28 industries in China from 2011 to 2017 to establish a fixed effect model to test the theoretical analysis results.The results conform to the hypothesis:the larger the demand scale is,the more independent research and development results are.

关 键 词：中等收入陷阱 技术进步 国内需求规模 替代性技术进步 转移性技术进步 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]