汇率波动性、汇率水平与异质性企业出口  

Exchange Rate Volatility,Exchange Rate Change and Firms’Export

作　　者：赵晓涛 邱斌[1] ZHAO XiaoTao;QIU Bin(School of Economic and management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096)

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《财贸研究》2020年第8期38-51,98,共15页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“城市群多中心空间发展促进城乡融合的机制与路径研究”(71993973)。

摘　　要：汇率是影响企业出口的重要因素。基于微观企业产品层面数据和年度真实汇率数据,系统地考察了汇率波动性、汇率水平对异质性企业产品出口的影响。研究发现:汇率波动性增大显著抑制了企业产品出口,该抑制作用主要通过产品数量实现;汇率波动性的影响明显具有跨期效应,上一期汇率波动性对企业当期出口的影响与当期汇率波动性影响相当;总体而言,汇率波动性对企业出口的影响与汇率水平持平。进一步机制检验表明,汇率波动性所导致交易“块度”变化是汇率波动性影响出口的主要渠道,政府通过汇率快速贬值可能无法有效促进企业出口。Exchange rate is one of the most important factors influencing a firm’s export.This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility and level of exchange rate on export of heterogeneous firms by using micro enterprise level data and annual real exchange rate.The study indicates that increasing exchange rate volatility significantly inhibits the export of enterprises’products,which is mainly realized through export products quantity.The influence of the exchange rate volatility has obvious cross-period effects,and the effect of exchange rate volatility in the last period on firms’export is similar to that of the current exchange rate volatility.In general,the effect of exchange rate volatility on firms’export is similar to the level of the exchange rate.Further mechanism test shows that the change of trade block caused by the exchange rate volatility is the main channel through which exchange rate volatility affects export.Government may not be able to effectively promote firms’export through rapid depreciation of the exchange rate.

关 键 词：汇率波动 汇率水平 企业出口 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]