人民币汇率、进(出)口依存度与对外直接投资  

RMB Exchange Rate,Import or Export Dependence and China’s OFDI

作　　者：陈琳[1] 高燕丽 王捷[1] CHEN Lin;GAO YanLi;WANG Jie(School of Economics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济学院,上海200062

出　　处：《财贸研究》2020年第8期52-64,共13页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国IFDI与OFDI互动发展的内在机制与经济学解释”(16ZDA043)。

摘　　要：基于中国对各国对外直接投资数据,实证考察人民币汇率变动、进(出)口依存度对对外直接投资的影响。结果表明:人民币升值显著促进对外直接投资,并且,中国对东道国的进(出)口依存度越高,人民币升值对对外直接投资的促进作用越大。异质性分析表明,因为国别差异,人民币升值对流向发达国家和发展中国家的对外直接投资作用效应不同;在不同的汇率升(贬)值区间,作用效果也有所不同。对于中国这样一个对外贸易和对外投资大国,不仅需要关注汇率变动对进(出)口以及对外投资单方面的影响,还需关注汇率变动对于进(出)口和对外投资的交互协同作用。Based on China’s OFDI data to various countries,this paper empirically investigates effects of RMB exchange rate changes,import or export dependence on OFDI.The results show that RMB appreciation significantly promotes OFDI,and the higher China’s import or export dependence on the host country is,the greater the promotion effect of RMB appreciation to OFDI will be.Due to country differences,RMB exchange rate appreciation has different effects on OFDI flowing to developed and developing countries.In different exchange rate appreciation(devaluation)range,the effect is also different.For China,which has tremendous trade volume and OFDI volume,it’s necessary to pay attention not only to the effects of exchange rate changes on import and export and OFDI,but also to the interactive and synergistic effects of exchange rate changes on imports and exports and foreign investment.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 进口依存度 出口依存度 对外直接投资 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学] F752