中美贸易摩擦背景下加入RCEP对中国经济及相关产业影响分析  

Analysis of the Impact of RCEP on China's Economy and Related Industries under the Background of Sino-US Trade Friction

作　　者：梁一新 LIANG Yixin(China Center for Information Industry Development)

机构地区：[1]工业和信息化部赛迪研究院工业经济研究所

出　　处：《国际贸易》2020年第8期38-47,共10页Intertrade

基　　金：工业和信息化部重大课题“2019中日韩、RCEP自贸区货物关税减让谈判研究”(XM201909101114048)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：“十四五”期间,中美经贸关系的不确定性是我国经济运行面临的最大外部风险。在此背景下,加快实施自由贸易区战略是反击美国贸易保护主义,捍卫全球自由贸易的有力举措。目前我国在谈的13个自由贸易协定中,RCEP是规模最大、参与成员最多、对构建亚太区域产业链意义最大的自由贸易协定。本文采用被广泛应用于全球自由贸易协定和贸易政策模拟分析的递归动态GTAP模型,定量模拟RCEP对中国宏观经济和相关产业影响,评估其对中美贸易摩擦负面影响的减缓效应,特别关注印度退出对我国的不利影响,并在此基础上提出四条启示与建议:确保RCEP如期生效并推动印度加入;加快中日韩自由贸易协定谈判并适时考虑加入CPTPP;继续推动美国降低对自我国进口产品关税并促进出口市场多元化;尽快建立保护受冲击产业的贸易调整援助机制。During the“14th Five-Year Plan”period,the uncertainty of China-US economic and trade relations is the biggest external risk for China's economy.In this context,accelerating the implementation of the FTA strategy is a powerful measure to counter US trade protectionism and defend global free trade.Among the 13 free trade agreements currently under discussion,RCEP is the largest FTA in scale and participating members which has the greatest significance for the construction of Asia-Pacific industrial chain.This article uses the recursive dynamic GTAP model,which is widely used in the analysis of global FTA and trade policies,to simulate the impact of RCEP on China's macroeconomics and related industries,assessing the minimized effect of its negative impact from Sino-US trade frictions,paying special attention to the adverse impact of India's exit on China.On this basis,four suggestions are proposed:ensuring RCEP to be effective on schedule and promoting India's accession;accelerating the negotiation of the China-Japan-Korea FTA and considering joining the CPTPP in due time;continuing to push US to reduce the additional tariff on China's products and diversifying the export market;establishing a trade adjustment assistance mechanism to protect the affected industries as soon as possible.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 RCEP 递归动态GTAP模型 减缓效应 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济] F124