不同气候条件下桫椤在中国的潜在适生区分布  

Potential distributions of Alsophila spinulosa under different climates in China

作　　者：许斌[1,2] 朱文泉 李培先 XU Bin;ZHU Wenquan;LI Peixian(College of Geography and Resources Science,Neijiang Normal University,Neijiang 641100,China;Institute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]内江师范学院地理与资源科学学院,内江641100 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部遥感科学与工程研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《生态学报》2020年第17期6105-6117,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771047);生态旅游湖南省重点实验室开放基金项目(STLV19010)。

摘　　要：桫椤(Alsophila spinulosa)对研究物种形成和植物地理区系、重建侏罗纪古生态环境、研究地质变迁具有重要参考价值。依据现有189个桫椤分布样点和21个环境数据,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(GIS)软件预测末次间冰期、末次冰盛期、中全新世、现今以及未来(2070年)气候条件下桫椤潜在适生区影响因素、空间分布和变化规律。结果表明:1)桫椤潜在适生概率(P)高于0.5的环境条件为:昼夜温差月均值低于7.6℃、最冷月最低温为3-10℃、年温变化在21.5-27.5℃范围,年降水量1200-2100 mm、最干月降水量16-46 mm、降雨量变化方差在57-76区间,海拔160-800 m,坡度12-28°之间;末次间冰期至末次冰盛期,桫椤潜在适生区主要受最冷月最低温(高于-3℃)和最干月降水量(高于10 mm)影响,中全新世至2070年,还同时受降雨量变化方差(大于50)影响;2)桫椤潜在适生区主要位于中国约32°20′N以南的热带亚热带山地,末次间冰期至末次冰盛期,桫椤潜在适生区中心由广东中部向西北方向移动至广西北部且距离最远,末次冰盛期至2070年则由广西北部向东北方向的湖南西部移动;末次间冰期至2070年,Ⅱ(0.1<P<0.3)、Ⅲ(0.3<P<0.5)级潜在适生区平均海拔总体升高,在现今气候下达到最大、之后降低,Ⅳ(0.5<P<0.7)、V(P>0.7)级潜在适生区平均海拔先升高、随后呈波浪状升降趋势;3)末次间冰期至2070年,潜在适生区总面积、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ级潜在适生区面积均增多,在现今气候下达到最大,之后有所减少,Ⅱ级潜在适生区面积在末次间冰期至中全新世增多,中全新世至现今减少、随后增多;各级潜在适生区面积在海拔约300-400 m处达最大值;约77%-98%的Ⅱ-Ⅴ级潜在适生区分布于海拔1200 m以下,约81%-97%的Ⅳ、Ⅴ级潜在适生区分布于海拔800 m以下。本文研究结果可为保护桫椤应对气候变暖、引种栽培和保护区选址提供参考。Alsophila spinulosa sheds light on the speciation and phytogeographic flora,reconstruction of the paleoecological environment and geological changes.Based on 189 locations of A.spinulosa and 21 environmental variables,the influencing factors,spatial distribution and variation rules of potential distribution areas of A.spinulosa under the climatic conditions of the Last Interglacial(LIG),Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),Middle Holocene(Mid⁃Holocene),present and future(2070)are predicted by employing the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and ArcGIS software.The following conclusions have been drawn:1)the environmental conditions of A.spinulosa with a survival probability larger than 0.5 are as follows:the monthly mean diurnal range is lower than 7.6℃;the minimum temperature of the coldest month is within 3-10℃;the temperature annual range is 21.5-27.5℃;the annual precipitation is 1200-2100 mm;the precipitation of the driest month is 16-46 mm;the precipitation seasonality(coefficient of variation)is 57-76;the altitude is 160-800 m;and the slope is 12-28°.During the period from the LIG to LGM,the potential distribution areas of A.spinulosa are mainly affected by the minimum temperature of the coldest month(above-3℃)and the precipitation of the driest month(above 10 mm).During the period from the Mid⁃Holocene to 2070,it is also affected by precipitation seasonality(greater than 50).2)The potential distribution areas of A.spinulosa are the tropics and subtropics located in the south of 32°20′N in China.From the LIG to LGM,the center of the potential distribution areas of A.spinulosa moved from the central Guangdong to the northern Guangxi with the farthest distance,then,moved from the northern Guangxi to the western Hunan during the LGM to 2070.From the LIG to 2070,the average elevation of the grade II(the survival probability ranges from 0.1-0.3)and III(0.3-0.5)potential distribution areas increased,it reaches the maximum in present,and then will decrease.The average elevation of the grade Ⅳ(0.5-0.7)and V(>0.7)p

关 键 词：气候变化 潜在适生区 空间分布 影响因素 桫椤 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]