基于非对称GH-Copula函数推求珠海市设计暴雨过程线  

Design rainstorm hydrograph in Zhuhai city based on asymmetrical GH-copula

作　　者：陈子燊 李鸿皓[3] CHEN Zishen;LI Honghao(Xinhua College of Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510520,China;School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Zhuhai Public Meteorological Service Center,Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学新华学院,广东广州510520 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [3]珠海市公共气象服务中心,广东珠海519000

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第5期95-101,共7页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371498,41771044);广东省科学院发展专项资金项目(2019GDASYL-0104003,2020GDASYL-20200401001);水利部珠江河口动力学及伴生过程调控重点实验室开放研究基金([2018]KJ08);广东省科技计划项目(2018B030324002)。

摘　　要：以1961~2018年珠海市气象站历年最大1 h雨量(雨峰)、最大6 h雨量和最大24 h雨量为样本,采用非对称Gumbel-Hougaard(GH)Copula分别构建3个时段雨量联合分布的典型暴雨过程线。研究结果有以下结论:采用3个历时雨量联合分布推求的珠海设计暴雨值大于两个时段联合分布和单一时段设计暴雨值;3个时段雨量联合分布的"或"联合重现期更适用于应对城市雨洪风险;按同频率放大的典型设计暴雨过程线可作为排水防涝工程设计的参考依据。The maximum 1-hour rainfall(rain peak),maximum 6-hour rainfall and maximum 24-hour rainfall recorded at Zhuhai meteorological stations from 1961 to 2018 are taken as case study.The two typical rainstorm hydrographs of rainfall joint distribution with three time periods were constructed based on the asymmetric Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard(GH)copula.The main conclusions were reached as follows:The designed rainstorm value in Zhuhai city calculated by using the combined distribution of three time periods of rainfall is larger than the designed rainstorm value of the combined distribution with two time periods and that of a single time period;The’OR’joint return periods of rainfall in combined distribution of three time periods is more suitable for dealing with the flood risk of Zhuhai city.The designed typical rainstorm hydrographs amplified by the same frequency can be selected as the reference for the design of drainage and flood prevention engineering.

关 键 词：非对称GH-copula函数 设计暴雨过程线 “或”联合重现期 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]