新疆气候干湿变化特征分析  

The characteristics of climate change in Xinjiang during 1961-2015

作　　者：赵慧 姚俊强[2] 李新国 陶辉 ZHAO Hui;YAO Junqiang;LI Xinguo;TAO Hui(College of Geographic Sciences and Tourism/Xinjiang Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,China;Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院/新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第5期126-133,共8页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41661047);中国沙漠气象科学基金(Sqj2017012);新疆维吾尔自治区“天山青年”计划项目(2017Q092);新疆维吾尔自治区高层次引进人才项目(Y642091,Y644131)。

摘　　要：选取1961~2015年新疆55个气象站点的逐月观测气温、降水数据,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),3个月时间尺度可以反映季节的干湿变化状况,因此采用SPEI-3分析得到近55年新疆气候的干湿变化特征。结果表明:1)从SPEI-3每10年干湿变化速率分析,新疆气候整体有微弱的变干趋势,变化速率为0.055,表现在不同站点上的干湿变化速率有所不同,最大的变湿速率为0.229,最大的变干速率为0.400。2)在1961~1987年,处于干旱和干旱缓解期的交替期,1987~1996年处于干旱缓解期,其中1997年和2008年,是较严重的干旱年份,干旱站点数比例分别为82%和78%;在阈值R1=-0.20、-0.30、-0.40下,1997年干旱烈度和干旱历时均达到最大值。3)EOF1特征向量值最大为0.150,反映研究区整体干湿变化在减弱,且有变干趋势;EOF2和REOF2是南北疆反向变化,特征向量值最大值分别为0.210和0.250,从线性变化趋势可看出北疆的干旱化加剧,而南疆变干趋势减弱;EOF3和REOF3是东西相反的分布形式,最大特征向量值均为0.320,表现为东天山有变干趋势,而南疆西部有干旱缓解趋势。By using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the dry-wet climate changes on the 3-month time scale in the past 55 years were documented based on monthly temperatures and precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 from 55 meteorological stations in Xinjiang.The results are shown as follows:(1)The analysis of SPEI-3 on dry and wet change rates every 10 years suggested a weak trend of dryness,with a change rate of 0.055.The dry and wet change rates varied at different sites with the maximum wet rate of 0.229 and the maximum drying rate of 0.400.(2)There existed an alternating period of drought and drought relief from 1961 to 1987 and a drought relief period from 1987 to 1996.The severe drought occurred in 1997 and 2008,with the proportions of drought sites of 82%and 78%,respectively,under the threshold R1=-0.20,-0.30,-0.40.The drought intensity and the duration of drought reached the maximum in 1997.(3)The maximum EOF1 feature vector value was0.150,reflecting that the overall dry and wet changes were weakening and tended to become dry in the study area.EOF2 and REOF2 showed reverse changes in northern and southern Xinjiang,with the maximum feature vector values of 0.210 and 0.250,respectively.The linear trend indicated that the drought was increasing in northern Xinjiang,while the trend of drying out was weakening in southern Xinjiang.EOF3 and REOF3 were in the opposite distribution form.The maximum feature vector value was 0.320,suggesting that the east Tianshan tended to dry out,while the western South Xinjiang showed a drought relief trend.

关 键 词：干湿变化特征 经验正交函数 标准化降水蒸散指数 干旱历时 新疆 

分 类 号：S162.1[农业科学—农业气象学]