政府购买农村居家养老服务资金规模预测——兼论对政府财政的影响  

Prediction of the Scale of Government Purchase of Rural Home-Based Pension Service Fund——On the Influence on Government Finance

作　　者：仙蜜花 邓大松[2] Xian Mihua;Deng Dasong

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学文法学院社会学系 [2]武汉大学社会保障研究中心

出　　处：《财政研究》2020年第9期40-51,92,共13页Public Finance Research

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“农村社会养老服务资源配置研究”(编号:2662019QD040);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“人口老龄化与养老服务体系建设研究”(16JJD840009)。

摘　　要：基于政府购买养老服务视角,本文引入居家养老服务补贴制度,通过设定两种补贴标准和四种补贴覆盖率等交互组合补贴方式,并结合农村老年人口、补贴标准及补贴标准增长率等因素,测算了2019-2050年政府购买农村居家养老服务所需资金及其对政府财政的影响。研究发现,农村居家养老服务购买资金数额是多个因素共同作用的结果,其中补贴标准对服务购买资金的影响较大。在固定比例补贴覆盖率(10%、50%和100%)下,农村居家养老服务购买资金呈现波动上升趋势。在逐步提高补贴覆盖率下,农村居家养老服务购买资金随补贴覆盖率的提高而增加,并于2050年前后达到峰值。在交互组合的8种补贴方式中,有6种补贴方式下的政府购买服务资金占当期财政支出的比重较低,对财政的影响较小,其余2种补贴方式将对财政产生一定的压力。为此,政府购买农村居家养老服务应以低水平开启,通过构建多元化的购买服务资金体系,进而推动农村居家养老服务的可持续发展。Based on the perspective of government purchase of pension service,this paper introduces the homebased pension service subsidy system.By setting two kinds of subsidy standards and four kinds of coverage and other interactive combination of subsidies,and combining with the factors such as the rural elderly population,subsidy standards and growth rate,this paper estimates the fund needed by the government to purchase the rural home-based pension services in 2019-2050 and its impact on the government finance.It is found that the amount of rural home-based pension service purchase fund is the result of multiple factors,among which the subsidy standard has a greater impact.Under the fixed proportion coverage(10%,50%and 100%),the purchase fund of home-based pension services shows a fluctuating upward trend.With the gradual expansion of coverage,the fund increases with the expansion of coverage and reaches a peak around 2050.The proportion of government purchase service fund in the current financial expenditure is relatively low in six subsidy modes of interactive combination,which has little impact on finance.The other two subsidy modes will exert certain pressure on finance.Therefore,the purchase of rural home-based pension services by the government should be started at a low level,and then a diversified fund system should be built to promote the sustainable development of rural home-based care services.

关 键 词：农村居家养老服务 政府购买 资金规模 养老服务补贴 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]