YHGS模式产品在华中一次暴雨预报应用的评估  

Application evaluation of theYHGS model products in a rainstorm forecast in central China

作　　者：熊洁 赵军[2] 赖安伟[1] 曹小群[2] 周志敏[1] 康兆萍 XIONG Jie;ZHAO Jun;LAI Anwei;CAO Xiaoqun;ZHOU Zhimin;KANG Zhaoping(Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430205;College of meteorological and oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205 [2]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2020年第5期462-469,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507200,2016YFC0203304);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41830965);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41705034)。

摘　　要：利用国防科技大学全球中期数值天气预报模式(YinHe Global Spetral model,YHGS)产品驱动WRF对2018年7月4日华中地区暴雨过程进行模拟,并与ERA-interim资料作初始场模拟结果对比,评估YHGS模式产品在此次暴雨过程预报中的应用能力。结果表明:(1)WRF-YHGS对2018年7月4日华中地区暴雨过程有一定的预报能力,其模拟的大尺度环流形势、水汽收支量变化趋势与WRF-ERA有着很好的一致性,YHGS模式产品驱动中尺度数值预报是可行的。(2)WRF-YHGS模拟效果较WRF-ERA差,但大雨量级WRF-ERA湿偏差较大,两组试验各物理量模拟结果存在一定差距,且随着积分时间的增加差异逐渐增大。(3)WRF-YHGS、WRF-ERA模拟结果的差异主要来自YHGS与ERA初始场中差异较大的次天气尺度运动和YHGS全球模式预报场误差两个方面。In this paper,the rainstorm event on 4 July 2018 in central China was simulated using YHGS model product driven WRF,and the application capability of YHGS model product in this forecast was evaluated by comparing to the initial field simulation results with ERA-in⁃terim data.The conclusions are as follows.(1)WRF-YHGS has a certain ability to forecast the rainstorm in central China on 4 July 2018.The simulated large-scale circulation situation and the variation trend of water vapor budget are in good agreement with WRF-ERA.YHGS model product driven mesoscale numerical prediction is feasible.(2)The simulated skill of WRF-YHGS is worse than WRF-ERA,but WRF-ERA wet deviation of heavy rain is larger.There is a certain gap between the simulation results of each physical quantity in the two tests,and the difference gradually increases with the increase of integration time.(3)The difference between WRF-YHGS and WRF-ERA simulation results mainly comes from two aspects:the subsynoptic-scale motion between YHGS and ERA in the initial field and the predic⁃tion field error of YHGS global model.

关 键 词：YHGS模式 暴雨 初始场 应用评估 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]