特朗普政府国家安全战略的不确定性论析  

On the Uncertainty of Trump Administration's National Security Strategy

作　　者：刘胜湘[1] 张鹏 高瀚 LIU Sheng-xiang;ZHANG Peng;GAO Han

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学中东研究所,上海200083

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2020年第5期3-19,127,共18页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目的阶段性成果(17AGJ004)。

摘　　要：2017年1月特朗普执政以来,其政府国家安全战略已总体确定。其执政三年多来,美国和世界正承受着“特朗普主义”冲击波。由于美国在世界上的特殊地位和影响,特朗普的一举一动都牵动着世界的神经。特朗普的零政治经验、内阁成员的频繁更迭、战略安全思维的博弈竞争性以及民主党对特朗普施加的违法调查压力等,导致特朗普政府国家安全战略表现出很大的不确定性。这将损害美国的声誉和削弱其软实力,影响其国家安全战略的执行力,并破坏现有国际规则和国际关系的稳定。今后美国国家安全战略的推进还将受到国内外两大因素的影响和制约,不确定性还将持续存在。特朗普时期美国成为世界动荡之源,已从国际秩序和国际规则的建设者和维护者变成国际秩序的破坏者,特朗普或许成为美国和西方主导的世界秩序的终结者,中国对此应该有充分的应对准备。National security strategy of Trump administration has been generally detemiined since Tnunp took office.Now the United States and the world are experiencing the shock wave of Trump Doctrine.Because of the special status and influence of the United States in the world,Trumps every move affects the nerves of the worid,Trump’s Zero Political Experience,Frequent changes of govemment leaders,the game competitiveness of Trump government's strategic security thinking,and Democratic pressure on Investigation of Tramp's Illegality,and etc.lead to the great uncertainty of its na­tional secunty strategy,which will damage the reputation of the United States and weaken its soft power,afiect the implementation of its nadonal security strategy,and destroy the existing international rules and stability of international relations.Not only that,in the future,the promotion of Trump Administrarion's national security strategy will be influenced and constrained by two major factors at home and abroad.The uncertainty of Trump administrarion's national security strategy will continue.The United States is the source of world turbulence and has been ffom the builder and defender to the destroyer of the world order and rules during Trumps period.Trump may be the terninator of the world order dominated by the United States and the West,which China should be ftilly prepared for.

关 键 词：特朗普政府 美国 国家安全战略 不确定性 动因 影响 应对之策 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]