山西南部临汾-运城盆地ML≥3.0地震平静异常效能评价  

Effectiveness Evaluation of Quiet Anomaly of ML≥3.0 Earthquake in Linfen and Yuncheng Basin,Southern Shanxi province

作　　者：郑亚迪 宋美琴[1,2] 李丽[1,2] ZHENG Ya-di;SONG Mei-qin;LI Li(Shanxi Earthquake Agency, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030021, China;National Continental Rift Valley Dynamics Observatory of Taiyuan, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030025, China)

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局,山西太原030021 [2]太原大陆裂谷动力学国家野外科学观测研究站,山西太原030025

出　　处：《山西地震》2020年第3期9-13,共5页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

摘　　要：自2017年10月19日山西省临汾市尧都区发生ML3.6地震以来,临汾-运城盆地表现为大范围的ML3.0弱震活动,截至2020年6月20日ML3.0地震平静长达974 d。应用临汾-运城盆地内自1997年以来的ML≥3.0地震目录,分析地震平静异常与异常结束后该区发生ML4.5以上地震之间的关系。结果显示,ML3.0地震平静异常超过1年,平静打破后的281 d内在临汾-运城盆地有发生ML≥4.5地震的危险,异常对应率为100%,且地震预报效能评分R值为0.65(R0=0.52)和Molchan检验概率增益达到3,说明山西南部临汾-运城盆地ML3.0地震平静异常预测效能明显,可作为区域危险性判定的依据之一。Since the ML3.6 earthquake occurred in Yaodu district,Linfen city,Shanxi province on October 19,2017,the Linfen-Yuncheng basin has shown a large range of weak earthquake activity of ML3.0,with 974 days of ML3.0 earthquake calm as of June 20,2020.Based on the catalogue of earthquakes with ML≥3.0 in Linfen Yuncheng basin since 1997,the relationship between seismic quiescence anomaly and the occurrence of earthquakes above ML4.5 in Linfen-Yuncheng basin is analyzed.The results show that the quiet anomaly of ML3.0 earthquake is more than one year,and within 281 days after the break of the calm,there is a risk of ML≥4.5 earthquake in Linfen-Yuncheng basin,the corresponding rate of anomaly is 100%,and the R value of earthquake prediction efficiency score is 0.65(R0=0.52)and the probability gain of Molchan test is 3,which indicates that the prediction efficiency of ML3.0 earthquake quiescence anomaly in Linfen-Yuncheng basin in southern Shanxi is obvious and can be used as one of the basis for regional hazard determination.

关 键 词：地震活动性 地震平静 异常指标 山西南部 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]