基于指标体系的城市地震灾害风险评估研究  

Research on Urban Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Index System

作　　者：曾金艳[1,2] 陈文 扈桂让[1,2] ZENG Jin-yan;CHEN Wen;HU Gui-rang(Shanxi Earthquake Agency, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030021, China;National Continental Rift Valley Dynamics Observatory of Taiyuan, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030025, China;Mei Chen Building Seismic Engineering Limited Liability Company of Beijing, Beijing 100021, China)

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局,山西太原030002 [2]太原大陆裂谷动力学国家野外科学观测研究站,山西太原030025 [3]北京美辰建筑抗震工程有限公司,北京100021

出　　处：《山西地震》2020年第3期14-19,共6页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

基　　金：山西省重点研发计划(201603D321124);运城市中心城区地震灾害预测项目(201501)。

摘　　要：利用地震危险性、承灾体的暴露性、承灾体的脆弱性以及抗震减灾能力四个因素构建运城市地震灾害风险评估模型,确定地震强度、频度等18个因子组成评估指标体系。采用AHP法对运城市13个市(区、县)进行地震灾害风险评估计算,并对各县区的结果进行对比分析。结果表明,各行政区的地震灾害风险不同,盐湖区和临猗县的地震灾害风险最高,垣曲县最低;各指标因子对不同行政区的风险灾害影响程度存在差异。评估结果可为政府有针对性加强防震减灾管理提供决策依据。By using the four factors of earthquake risk,the exposure of disaster bearing body,the vulnerability of disaster bearing body and the ability of earthquake disaster reduction,the evaluation index system composed of 18 factors,such as earthquake intensity and frequency is determined.In this paper,AHP method is used to evaluate the seismic disaster risk of 13 cities(districts and counties)in Yuncheng City,and the results of each county are compared and analyzed.The results show that the earthquake disaster risk of each administrative region is different.The seismic disaster risk of Yanhu District and Linyi County is the highest,and Yuanqu County is the lowest.The evaluation results can provide decision-making basis for the government to strengthen the management of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.

关 键 词：地震灾害 风险评估 指标体系 层次分析法 

分 类 号：P315.92[天文地球—地震学]