滇中城市群人口—土地—产业城镇化时空演变及耦合协调分析  

Analysis on Spatio-temporal Evolution and Coupling Coordination of Population-Land-Industry Urbanization in Yunnan Central Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：潘媚 牛乐德[1] 陈英[1] PAN Mei;NIU Le-de;CHEN Ying(College of Tourism and Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《云南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第5期64-70,共7页Journal of Yunnan Normal University:Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41361042);教育部人文社会科学青年基金资助项目(20YJCZH250);云南省教育厅科学研究基金资助项目(2019J0073)。

摘　　要：在构建人口、土地与产业城镇化测度指标体系的基础上,综合运用三角模型、耦合协调模型及熵权法,对滇中城市群49个县市区2005-2015年间人口、土地与产业城镇化的时空演变及耦合协调态势进行分析,并进一步对促进“人—地—产”城镇化协调发展的驱动机制进行探究,得出以下结论:(1)滇中城市群人口、土地与产业城镇化发展的空间差异显著,十年间,初步形成了以环滇池地区为主中心,昆明市东川区、玉溪市红塔区、楚雄彝族自治州楚雄市、曲靖市麒麟区和红河哈尼族彝族自治州蒙自市为次中心的“一极多核”空间格局,高值区呈现出由核心地区圈层式向外蔓延的发展态势;(2)研究区“人—地—产”城镇化的耦合协调度持续上升,与人口、土地及产业城镇化空间变动格局整体一致,县域间城镇化差距明显缩小,向区域均衡化发展;(3)2005-2015年间,影响该区“人—地—产”城镇化协调发展的因素有所变化,其中市场作用逐渐增强,内生力量影响有所减弱,投资力量与政府作用变动相对较小.Based on the construction of the measurement index system for population,land and industry urbanization,this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and coupling coordination of population,land and industry urbanization in 49 counties of Yunnan central urban agglomeration during 2005-2015 by comprehensively applying the triangular model,coupling coordination model and entropy weight method.And the driving mechanism of promoting the coordinated development of"population-land-industry"urbanization was further explored.The conclusion is as follows:(1)There are significant spatial difference in population,land and industry urbanization development in Yunnan central urban agglomeration.Over the past ten years,a spatial pattern based on one primary center and multiple sub-centers had been formed in urbanization.The high-value areas show a development trend that the outer layer spread from the core area;(2)The coupling coordination degree of"population-land-industry"urbanization in the study area continues to rise,which is consistent with the overall pattern of spatial change of population,land and industry urbanization.The urbanization gap between counties have been significantly narrowed,and the region is developing towards regional equilibrium;(3)During 2005-2015,the factors affecting the coordinated development of"population-land-industry"urbanization in the region were changed.The role of the market has gradually increased,while the influence of endogenous forces has weakened,and the investment power and government roles have seen relatively small changes.

关 键 词：城镇化 时空演变 耦合协调 驱动机制 滇中城市群 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]