延迟退休能破解养老保险降费率“不可能三角”吗?  

Can Delayed Retirement Age Crack the“Impossible Trinity”of Pension Contribution Rate Reduction?

作　　者：景鹏[1] 陈明俊 胡秋明[1] Jing Peng;Chen Mingjun;Hu Qiuming(School of Insurance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学保险学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《财经研究》2020年第10期64-78,共15页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72004183);国家社会科学基金项目(18ASH016,18VSJ095);四川省社科规划项目(SC19C051)。

摘　　要：如何在降低养老保险缴费率的同时实现养老金替代率不降、基金财务平衡和经济增长三个目标,是社会各界关注的热点话题。文章构建世代交叠模型,基于新古典增长框架和内生增长框架,在基金财务平衡约束下考察降低养老保险缴费率和延迟退休对总产出增长率和养老金替代率的影响,探讨延迟退休能否破解降费率“不可能三角”。研究结果表明:(1)两种框架下,降低养老保险缴费率都能使总产出增长率上升和养老金替代率下降,从而证实了降费率存在政策目标上的“不可能三角”;(2)两种框架下,延迟退休都使得养老金替代率上升,但其对总产出增长率的影响则截然相反;(3)延迟退休能否破解降费率“不可能三角”取决于经济增长模式,“不可能三角”在新古典经济增长模式下能得到有效破解,而在内生经济增长模式下则无法破解。因此,我们要辩证看待延迟退休的政策效应,既要看到短期内新古典增长模式下延迟退休能够破解降费率“不可能三角”的积极效应,也要警惕向内生增长模式转变后延迟退休带来的潜在不利影响。Reducing the pension contribution rate is a long-term institutional arrangement that adapts to the new situation of economic development. Its policy intention is to relieve the burden on enterprises and promote economic growth. However,in the absence of effective financing channels in the pension system,to maintain the existing pension replacement rate,contribution rate reduction will inevitably exacerbate the risk of fund imbalances;to maintain the financial balance of pension fund,contribution rate reduction will inevitably lead to a decline in the pension replacement rate. Therefore,it is difficult to achieve three goals simultaneously by reducing the pension contribute rate,including maintaining the existing pension replacement rate,keeping financial balance of pension fund,and boosting economic growth. Meanwhile,to comply with the prolonged life expectancy,alleviate the shortage of labor supply,and curb the rapid upward trend of the population dependency ratio,the Chinese government plans to implement a delayed retirement age policy. On the one hand,delayed retirement age helps to improve the financial status of pension fund;on the other hand,it will affect economic growth by acting on capital accumulation and labor supply.So,can delayed retirement age crack the "impossible trinity" of reducing the pension contribution rate?Based on the neoclassical growth framework and the endogenous growth framework,this paper builds an overlapping generation model to investigate the impacts of pension contribution rate reduction and delayed retirement age on the total output growth rate and the pension replacement rate under the constraint of pension fund balance,and discusses whether delayed retirement age can crack the "impossible trinity" of pension contribution rate reduction. We find that:First,under the said two frameworks,reducing the pension contribution rate always leads to an increase in the total output growth rate and a decline in the pension replacement rate,proving the existence of "impossible trinity". Seco

关 键 词：养老保险缴费率 延迟退休 经济增长 养老金替代率 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]