多子多福?子女数量对农村老年人精神状况的影响  

More Children,More Blessings?The Impact of the Number of Children on the Mental Status of the Rural Elderly

作　　者：刘生龙[1,2] 胡鞍钢[1,2] 张晓明[3] Liu Shenglong;Hu Angang;Zhang Xiaoming

机构地区：[1]清华大学国家治理与全球治理研究院 [2]清华大学公共管理学院 [3]中国社会科学院大学

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2020年第8期69-84,共16页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目“应对人口老龄化的女性劳动参与激励政策分析研究:理论、实证与模拟(编号:20YJA790047)”;国家自然科学基金项目“宏观大数据建模和预测研究(编号:71991475)”的资助。

摘　　要：文章基于2010年、2014年和2018年中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)数据,利用始于1979年严格的独生子女政策作为外生的冲击,基于断点回归设计,估计子女数量对农村老年人精神状况的影响,同时还检验了相关的影响机制。研究结果表明:相对于生育一个孩子而言,生育两个及以上孩子的农村老年人的精神状况明显更好一些,具体反映在感到沮丧悲伤的概率更低,幸福感明显更高一些。异质性检验则发现,相对于生育多个孩子而言,当独生子女为女性时,老年人的精神状况明显更差。机制检验的结果表明,相对于生育多个子女的老年人来说,生育独生子女老年人的收入更低、身体状况更差。文章具有明显的政策含义:在当下人口老龄化加剧的趋势下,农村独生子女父母的养老问题已经成为需要政府重点关注的社会问题;政府应当加大农村社会养老保障的支持力度,在养老保险和医疗方面给予农村独生子女父母更多的支持以改善其经济和健康状况。Based on the data from the China’s Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2010,2014,and 2018,this article uses the rigid“one-child”policy since 1979 as an exogenous impact to conduct a discontinuity regression,estimates the impact of the number of children on the mental status of the rural elderly,and tests the relevant impact mechanisms.The results of the study show that,compared with the rural elderly having an only child,the mental status of those having two or more children is significantly better,which is reflected in a lower probability of feeling depressed and sad,and a significantly higher level of the sense of happiness.Heterogeneity tests find that,compared with the rural elderly having multiple children,the mental status of those having an only female child is significantly worse.The results of the mechanism test show that compared with the rural elderly having multiple children,the elderly having an only child has a lower income level and worse physical condition.The article has obvious policy implications.In the current trend of population ageing,the pension problem for the one-child parents in rural areas has become a social issue that requires the government’s attention.The government should increase support for rural social pension security and put more attention on endowment insurance and medical support to improve economic and health conditions of the elderly having an only child in rural areas.

关 键 词：子女数量 老年人精神状况 老年幸福 断点回归设计 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]